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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z Minor changes were made to the ongoing dry thunderstorm area in the Northwest based on recent guidance. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough on the Pacific Coast is forecast to move inland Sunday while the mid-level ridge over much of the West is expected to continue retreating. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the trough will gradually overspread portions of the Northwest and northern Great Basin, supporting an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Aided by the increased mixing, and residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge, diurnal minimum RH values below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period as the cold core of the upper trough moves inland over the Northwest. As lift from the upper trough and mid-level moisture move inland, additional storms may develop into the afternoon atop warm and dry low levels. Forecast soundings suggest mid/high-level cloud cover and some potential for smoke to limit heating and diurnal storm coverage. Still, isolated storm potential, along with dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt will likely support a risk for dry thunderstorms atop receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, slower storm speeds and a wetter storm mode are expected. Still, a few drier lightning strikes will remain possible atop mostly receptive fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z Minor changes were made to the ongoing dry thunderstorm area in the Northwest based on recent guidance. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough on the Pacific Coast is forecast to move inland Sunday while the mid-level ridge over much of the West is expected to continue retreating. A belt of stronger mid-level flow associated with the trough will gradually overspread portions of the Northwest and northern Great Basin, supporting an increase in surface winds to 15-25 mph. Aided by the increased mixing, and residual warm temperatures beneath the weakening ridge, diurnal minimum RH values below 15% are likely. Widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the northern Sierra and Great Basin, where the dry and breezy conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels. Farther north in the lee of the Cascades, gusty downslope and gap winds may also support brief elevated fire-weather potential as stronger flow aloft develops. However, some humidity recovery will eventually occur as marine influence will increase with time, potentially limiting the coverage and duration of fire-weather concerns. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early in the period as the cold core of the upper trough moves inland over the Northwest. As lift from the upper trough and mid-level moisture move inland, additional storms may develop into the afternoon atop warm and dry low levels. Forecast soundings suggest mid/high-level cloud cover and some potential for smoke to limit heating and diurnal storm coverage. Still, isolated storm potential, along with dry low levels and storm motions greater than 20 kt will likely support a risk for dry thunderstorms atop receptive fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage is greatest across portions of the northern and central Cascades, into eastern ID and far southwestern MT. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible farther across the southern Great Basin and southern CA. Displaced from the stronger flow aloft, and with access to more robust monsoon moisture, slower storm speeds and a wetter storm mode are expected. Still, a few drier lightning strikes will remain possible atop mostly receptive fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071750
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest, in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region. ..Dean.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest, in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region. ..Dean.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest, in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region. ..Dean.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest, in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region. ..Dean.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest, in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region. ..Dean.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest, in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region. ..Dean.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A deep trough is forecast to move eastward across eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS on Sunday, as an embedded mid/upper-level cyclone moves across parts of Quebec, New Brunswick, and northern New England. To the west, a midlevel shortwave trough will move across the interior Northwest, to the north of a mid/upper-level ridge. A surface ridge covering much of the eastern CONUS will prevent return of richer low-level moisture from near the Gulf Coast. This will limit destabilization and organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. Thunderstorms will be possible from the Carolinas/Georgia to the immediate Gulf Coast, where richer moisture will persist near and north of a surface front. A few strong storms may develop across the central/northern FL Peninsula, where the relative best overlap of instability and modest flow aloft is currently forecast. Weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes could move across parts of the Great Lakes, in conjunction with a pocket of cold temperatures aloft. Isolated to scattered high-based convection will be possible from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest, which may produce locally strong gusts. Some strong-gust potential could also accompany isolated storm development across the interior Northwest, in association with the shortwave trough moving across the region. ..Dean.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more intense storms. ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. ..Bunting/Elliott.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more intense storms. ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. ..Bunting/Elliott.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more intense storms. ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. ..Bunting/Elliott.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more intense storms. ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. ..Bunting/Elliott.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more intense storms. ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. ..Bunting/Elliott.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more intense storms. ...Northeast... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast today, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. Extensive cloud cover in advance of the front will tend to limit heating/destabilization, however modest MLCAPE (on the order of 250-500 J/kg) may develop from the northern Delmarva Peninsula north into southeast NY this afternoon. Ascent with an upper-level trough will continue to move east in tandem with the front, and scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon with some potential for locally gusty winds. Weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates should limit severe potential. ...Central High Plains... Low-level moisture will be generally modest east of a surface trough that will extend north-south across eastern portions of WY/CO this afternoon. Still, lower 50s surface dew points and steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to MLCAPE of 750-locally near 1000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms may form and move southeast within a northwest mid-level flow environment late this afternoon/evening, and a deep/well-mixed boundary layer suggests some potential for localized strong wind gusts. Thunderstorm potential may extend eastward into western portions of NE/KS this evening as a low-level jet strengthens. The overall coverage of any severe potential remains too low to introduce severe probabilities. ...Interior Northwest... The potential for isolated thunderstorms, already ongoing this morning over south-central OR, will continue today as modest large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level trough overspreads inland areas of the Pacific Northwest. These storms may produce limited rainfall, exacerbating fire weather concerns. ...Lower Colorado River Valley and Vicinity... Strong heating will contribute to scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, and 12z hi-res guidance suggests that a couple of stronger storms or small clusters may have the potential for gusty outflow winds within a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. ..Bunting/Elliott.. 09/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Based on current observations and recent guidance, modest modifications were made to the dry thunderstorm area in the Northwest. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Based on current observations and recent guidance, modest modifications were made to the dry thunderstorm area in the Northwest. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Based on current observations and recent guidance, modest modifications were made to the dry thunderstorm area in the Northwest. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly weaken under the influence of an approaching Pacific trough today and tonight. As ascent from the trough overspreads mid-level moisture, thunderstorms are likely across portions of the Cascades in OR and southern WA. Model and observed soundings show weak buoyancy atop hot and well-mixed boundary-layer profiles, supporting low precipitation efficiency, especially with storm motions greater than 20 kt. Hi-res model guidance suggests dry thunderstorm potential is highest across portions of the central Cascades, though more isolated and drier storms will also be possible across the northern Sierra and portions of southern CA. ...Sierra and northwest Great Basin... To the south of the main trough, moderate mid-level flow should gradually expand over parts of northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Gusty winds of 15-20 mph in the lee of the Sierra are likely to overlap with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. With receptive fuels and at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions possible, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more