Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the lower Great Lakes, along the Gulf Coast, and from the Four Corners northward into the northern Plains. No severe weather is expected Monday or Monday night. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move eastward through the Northeast on Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from near the trough westward into the lower Great Lakes, aided by strong large-scale ascent and cold air aloft. Thunderstorms will also be possible along parts of the Gulf Coast on the northern edge of a moist airmass. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Four Corners, with more isolated storms forming over the north-central states. No severe weather is expected across the continental United States Monday or Monday night. ..Broyles.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The organized severe-thunderstorm threat is expected to be low on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid-latitude cyclone, embedded within larger upper troughing, is forecast to progress northeastward from southern Quebec into northeastern Quebec. Another shortwave trough is expected to move through the western portion of the parent upper troughing, dropping across western Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes Sunday evening into Monday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with this second wave late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Evolution of these shortwaves will help maintain troughing across much of the eastern CONUS throughout the period. Farther west, upper ridging will gradually move eastward into the Plains while a low-amplitude shortwave trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure centered over the Mid MS Valley will dominate the sensible weather from the Mid MS and OH Valleys into much of the central and southern Plains. This should keep any low-level moisture confined to the immediate Gulf Coast and FL Peninsula. A stationary front will likely extend from a low over the far western Gulf of Mexico northeastward through northern FL. Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of this boundary throughout the day, with the highest coverage expected over the northern/central FL Peninsula. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating across northern/central FL Peninsula, and lapse rates will be poor. However, mid-level flow around 40 kt may support enough vertical shear for a few more persistent/organized updrafts capable of damaging gusts. Even so, severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. Afternoon thunderstorms are expected again from the central High Plains into parts of the central/southern Rockies, Great Basin, and Southwest. High-based character of these storms could result in a few locally strong gusts. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are also possible from the interior Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as a shortwave trough progresses through the region. A few strong gusts are possible with these storms as well. In both of these areas, overall severe coverage is expected to remain less than 5%. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves generally northwestward,
near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast today, though a few strong gusts could accompany the more robust storms across the central High Plains and Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity. ...01Z Update... ...Northeast... General thunder was removed across the region given the scant buoyancy and limited land area ahead of the cold front across southern New England. A flash or two is still possible within the more cellular activity across western NY and PA. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and across the FL Peninsula tonight through tomorrow morning. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm are expected to continue from the central High Plains/central Rockies through much of AZ and the Lower CO River Valley. Highest coverage is expected over the Lower CO River Valley. A few stronger storms capable of hail and/or damaging wind gusts in these areas, but overall coverage should remain very isolated. Lastly, isolated thunderstorms could last a few more hour across central OR and adjacent south-central WA. ..Mosier.. 09/08/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form during the early to
middle part of next week, near or just to the south of the coast of
southern or southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions could
support gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 7 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 7 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A seasonably strong trough will move into the Northwest early next week. This feature will dig into the Great Basin mid/late next week before lifting northeastward by the weekend. Fire weather concerns will be greatest within parts of the Great Basin beginning next week. Additional concerns are possible in the Plains depending on trends in model guidance and fuel receptiveness. ...Great Basin... Fire weather concerns will increase across the Great Basin on Tuesday as upper-level winds begin to increase across the Sierra. The spatial extent of stronger surface winds on Tuesday is a bit uncertain given the initially weak surface pressure pattern. Potential for critical fire weather will increase on Wednesday as the trough digs farther south and east and a deeper surface trough develops in the central/eastern Basin. Very dry conditions are possible along with winds that could exceed 20 mph, especially in southern Nevada into western Utah. ...Northwest... A few hours of elevated to near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the Cascades as winds increase ahead of the surface front on Monday. RH may be on the marginal side, particularly with northward extent, as the influence of marine air will be on the increase. However, recent active fire behavior and ignitions from recent lightning suggest some fire weather concerns will be present with the modest increase in westerly surface winds. ...Central and Northern High Plains/Plains... As the strong trough moves into the Great Basin and eventually lifts northeastward mid/late next week, southerly winds across these regions will increase as a surface low and lee trough deepens. The typically drier GFS would suggest at least elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but there is low confidence in ensemble guidance as well as the ECMWF as to where and for how long near-critical/critical conditions may occur. Furthermore, fuels are not equally dry across all areas. In general, initial return flow cases tend to verify drier than expected and with the added potential for a tropical system to impact the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South late next week, this may further stunt moisture return northward. Trends in model guidance and fuel dryness will continue to be monitored. ...Western/central Montana... As a surface low deepens in Alberta/Saskatchewan and a lee trough extends into the central High Plains, surface winds will increase in the lee of the terrain and into parts of central Montana. Downslope winds will lead to dry afternoon conditions on Monday. Upper-level winds over the area will be only modest and fuels are only moderately dry, however. Potential for critical fire weather appears too low for highlights, though at least a few hours of elevated conditions are possible. ..Wendt.. 09/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more