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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z High pressure will continue to build in across the western US through D3/Saturday. Thunderstorm activity will be minimal across the Southwest as Monsoonal moisture has gradually shifted southward. Temperatures across the west will climb to above normal, but winds will remain mostly light where fuels are the driest in the west. The aforementioned hot, dry, unstable conditions will lead to some increase in fire behavior. A return of isolated dry thunderstorm activity is expected D3/Saturday across the Pacific Northwest as a trough approaches from the Pacific and precipitable water values steadily increase. Isolated dry thunder probabilities were maintained on D3/Saturday, where signal for thunderstorms is highest in CAM guidance and ensemble output. Monsoonal moisture will slowly begin to return northward across the Southwest by D4/Sunday-D7/Wednesday. A few areas of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible across northern Arizona into southern Utah. Fuels in this region are drying, with further warming and drying is expected through the early extended and status of fuels will be reevaluated for future outlooks. The Pacific trough will deepen and move through D4/Sunday-D8 /Thursday, bringing enhanced westerly flow across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and into the Great Basin. This will lead to multiple rounds of potential for Elevated to Critical conditions. Considerable differences in the speed and timing of this trough lead to uncertainty in where these conditions will occur and when. For now 40 percent probabilities were included across portions of northern California, western Nevada, and southern Oregon, and into portions of western/central Idaho. These areas may need to be adjusted with better model consensus. Given the dry lightning risk on D1/Thursday, hold over fires will be a concern should winds speeds increase. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and with the exception of minor trimming of General Thunder in parts of the Midwest (where instability has weakened substantially), no appreciable changes were made with this update. The severe threat will gradually increase across portions of the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the afternoon, where isolated instances of hail and sporadic severe wind gusts will be possible. For details, see MCD #2048. ..Weinman.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. Read more

MD 2048 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2048 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Areas affected...northeast New Mexico and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 051848Z - 052045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across northeast New Mexico. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms developed this morning and have continued into the early afternoon ahead of the southward moving mid-level shortwave trough across Colorado. These storms have been sub-severe thus far with a maximum wind gust of 38 knots measured at Taos, NM. However, surface heating is destabilizing the airmass ahead of this storm activity and inhibition is forecast to eventually erode. Once this occurs, more robust convection is anticipated with the potential for some multicell/occasional supercell structures. Through time, these storms may congeal into one or more clusters with an increasing threat for sporadic severe wind gusts into the early evening. Any severe-weather threat which does materialize should subside near sunset as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 09/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ... LAT...LON 36500575 36970490 36940399 35760341 34950326 34370341 34010389 34150469 34350511 35260559 36090596 36500575 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor adjustments were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area along the Oregon Coast in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 09/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for Friday across parts of the northern Sierra Nevada into southwest OR. Recent water-vapor imagery reveals a weak upper disturbance over the eastern Pacific on the fringe of the upper ridge over the western U.S. This feature is expected to drift east/northeast over the next 48 hours, reaching northern CA/southern OR by late afternoon/evening Friday. As this occurs, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent-driven mid-level cooling over the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades should support adequate buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Recent forecast soundings suggest that boundary layer conditions will be sufficiently dry for dry lightning strikes, which will pose a fire weather concern given the dry fuels over the region (ERCs generally at or above the 80th percentile). Thunderstorms will be most likely along and to the lee side of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades where orographic ascent will aid in convective initiation. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible (and will most likely occur within the dry-thunderstorm risk area, but ensemble confidence in the coverage and duration of these conditions is somewhat limited (around 30-40% probability for sustained elevated conditions based on latest ensemble guidance). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more