Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging centered over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly decay today as a weak upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Ahead of the weak trough, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent will overspread the northern Sierra and southern Cascades. Adequate buoyancy will develop with daytime heating supporting isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Beneath the advancing mid-level moisture, dry boundary-layer profiles and storm motions of 20-25 kt will favor low to very low rainfall efficiency with these storms. With thunderstorms expected atop areas of receptive fuels, dry lightning appears probable. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds and low relative humidity across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible, though the duration and coverage should remain limited. ..Lyons.. 09/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging centered over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly decay today as a weak upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Ahead of the weak trough, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent will overspread the northern Sierra and southern Cascades. Adequate buoyancy will develop with daytime heating supporting isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Beneath the advancing mid-level moisture, dry boundary-layer profiles and storm motions of 20-25 kt will favor low to very low rainfall efficiency with these storms. With thunderstorms expected atop areas of receptive fuels, dry lightning appears probable. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds and low relative humidity across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible, though the duration and coverage should remain limited. ..Lyons.. 09/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging centered over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly decay today as a weak upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Ahead of the weak trough, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent will overspread the northern Sierra and southern Cascades. Adequate buoyancy will develop with daytime heating supporting isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Beneath the advancing mid-level moisture, dry boundary-layer profiles and storm motions of 20-25 kt will favor low to very low rainfall efficiency with these storms. With thunderstorms expected atop areas of receptive fuels, dry lightning appears probable. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds and low relative humidity across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible, though the duration and coverage should remain limited. ..Lyons.. 09/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging centered over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly decay today as a weak upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Ahead of the weak trough, a modest influx of mid-level moisture and ascent will overspread the northern Sierra and southern Cascades. Adequate buoyancy will develop with daytime heating supporting isolated thunderstorms through the evening hours. Beneath the advancing mid-level moisture, dry boundary-layer profiles and storm motions of 20-25 kt will favor low to very low rainfall efficiency with these storms. With thunderstorms expected atop areas of receptive fuels, dry lightning appears probable. Additionally, strengthening southwesterly mid-level flow should enhance downslope winds and low relative humidity across northern CA into northwest NV. Areas of brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible, though the duration and coverage should remain limited. ..Lyons.. 09/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in parts of the southwestern states, the Pacific Northwest and from the Southeast northward to the lower Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward across southeast Canada on Saturday, as an associated mid-level trough moves into the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Southeast. Ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop as a moist airmass heats up during the day. Additional storms will be possible on Saturday in the vicinity of a large area of mid-level high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. A few strikes may also occur near the Interstate-5 corridor in western Washington southward into the Willamette Valley. ..Broyles.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in parts of the southwestern states, the Pacific Northwest and from the Southeast northward to the lower Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward across southeast Canada on Saturday, as an associated mid-level trough moves into the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Southeast. Ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop as a moist airmass heats up during the day. Additional storms will be possible on Saturday in the vicinity of a large area of mid-level high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. A few strikes may also occur near the Interstate-5 corridor in western Washington southward into the Willamette Valley. ..Broyles.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in parts of the southwestern states, the Pacific Northwest and from the Southeast northward to the lower Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward across southeast Canada on Saturday, as an associated mid-level trough moves into the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Southeast. Ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop as a moist airmass heats up during the day. Additional storms will be possible on Saturday in the vicinity of a large area of mid-level high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. A few strikes may also occur near the Interstate-5 corridor in western Washington southward into the Willamette Valley. ..Broyles.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in parts of the southwestern states, the Pacific Northwest and from the Southeast northward to the lower Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward across southeast Canada on Saturday, as an associated mid-level trough moves into the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Southeast. Ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop as a moist airmass heats up during the day. Additional storms will be possible on Saturday in the vicinity of a large area of mid-level high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. A few strikes may also occur near the Interstate-5 corridor in western Washington southward into the Willamette Valley. ..Broyles.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday in parts of the southwestern states, the Pacific Northwest and from the Southeast northward to the lower Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward across southeast Canada on Saturday, as an associated mid-level trough moves into the central Appalachians. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas and Southeast. Ahead of the front, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop as a moist airmass heats up during the day. Additional storms will be possible on Saturday in the vicinity of a large area of mid-level high pressure located over the southwestern U.S. A few strikes may also occur near the Interstate-5 corridor in western Washington southward into the Willamette Valley. ..Broyles.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley Region... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over northwestern ON/upper MS Valley, digging southeast toward the Great Lakes. Leading edge of strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the OH Valley this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates across MN/IA into northern IL/IN. Pronounced surface front will advance into central OH, arcing southwest into western KY by 18z, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially robust convection this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the front which should result in SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as temperatures rise to near 80F. Current thinking is scattered storms should readily develop by mid day as convective temperatures are breached, aided by frontal forcing. Modest 0-6km bulk shear suggests some potential for organization, but lapse rates will not be that steep, and this should limit updraft strength. Even so, some risk for locally damaging winds, and perhaps some hail will exist with the strongest storms. The primary window for severe will be between 06/18-07/00z. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley Region... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over northwestern ON/upper MS Valley, digging southeast toward the Great Lakes. Leading edge of strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the OH Valley this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates across MN/IA into northern IL/IN. Pronounced surface front will advance into central OH, arcing southwest into western KY by 18z, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially robust convection this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the front which should result in SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as temperatures rise to near 80F. Current thinking is scattered storms should readily develop by mid day as convective temperatures are breached, aided by frontal forcing. Modest 0-6km bulk shear suggests some potential for organization, but lapse rates will not be that steep, and this should limit updraft strength. Even so, some risk for locally damaging winds, and perhaps some hail will exist with the strongest storms. The primary window for severe will be between 06/18-07/00z. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley Region... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over northwestern ON/upper MS Valley, digging southeast toward the Great Lakes. Leading edge of strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the OH Valley this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates across MN/IA into northern IL/IN. Pronounced surface front will advance into central OH, arcing southwest into western KY by 18z, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially robust convection this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the front which should result in SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as temperatures rise to near 80F. Current thinking is scattered storms should readily develop by mid day as convective temperatures are breached, aided by frontal forcing. Modest 0-6km bulk shear suggests some potential for organization, but lapse rates will not be that steep, and this should limit updraft strength. Even so, some risk for locally damaging winds, and perhaps some hail will exist with the strongest storms. The primary window for severe will be between 06/18-07/00z. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible this afternoon across much of Ohio and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. ...Ohio Valley Region... Seasonally strong upper trough is currently located over northwestern ON/upper MS Valley, digging southeast toward the Great Lakes. Leading edge of strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the OH Valley this afternoon as a 500mb speed max translates across MN/IA into northern IL/IN. Pronounced surface front will advance into central OH, arcing southwest into western KY by 18z, and this boundary will serve as the focus for potentially robust convection this afternoon. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating ahead of the front which should result in SBCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg as temperatures rise to near 80F. Current thinking is scattered storms should readily develop by mid day as convective temperatures are breached, aided by frontal forcing. Modest 0-6km bulk shear suggests some potential for organization, but lapse rates will not be that steep, and this should limit updraft strength. Even so, some risk for locally damaging winds, and perhaps some hail will exist with the strongest storms. The primary window for severe will be between 06/18-07/00z. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 09/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 060507
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support
gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will remain possible through mid evening across parts of the southern Rockies. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough, currently located over southern CO, is digging south-southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to progress into southern NM by the end of the period. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature which has produced several severe wind gusts over the last few hours. 00z sounding from ABQ exhibited a dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 3km, with steep mid-level lapse rates. While PW values are not particularly high, adequate moisture is available for efficient downbursts. Over the next few hours, scattered strong/locally severe storms will propagate toward southern NM with an attendant risk for severe gusts, or even marginally severe hail. However, boundary-layer cooling should lead to weakening updrafts in the next few hours and the severe threat will lessen markedly after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will remain possible through mid evening across parts of the southern Rockies. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough, currently located over southern CO, is digging south-southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to progress into southern NM by the end of the period. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature which has produced several severe wind gusts over the last few hours. 00z sounding from ABQ exhibited a dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 3km, with steep mid-level lapse rates. While PW values are not particularly high, adequate moisture is available for efficient downbursts. Over the next few hours, scattered strong/locally severe storms will propagate toward southern NM with an attendant risk for severe gusts, or even marginally severe hail. However, boundary-layer cooling should lead to weakening updrafts in the next few hours and the severe threat will lessen markedly after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will remain possible through mid evening across parts of the southern Rockies. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough, currently located over southern CO, is digging south-southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to progress into southern NM by the end of the period. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature which has produced several severe wind gusts over the last few hours. 00z sounding from ABQ exhibited a dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 3km, with steep mid-level lapse rates. While PW values are not particularly high, adequate moisture is available for efficient downbursts. Over the next few hours, scattered strong/locally severe storms will propagate toward southern NM with an attendant risk for severe gusts, or even marginally severe hail. However, boundary-layer cooling should lead to weakening updrafts in the next few hours and the severe threat will lessen markedly after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will remain possible through mid evening across parts of the southern Rockies. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough, currently located over southern CO, is digging south-southeast in line with latest model guidance. This feature is forecast to progress into southern NM by the end of the period. Scattered robust convection has developed ahead of this feature which has produced several severe wind gusts over the last few hours. 00z sounding from ABQ exhibited a dry adiabatic lapse rate in the lowest 3km, with steep mid-level lapse rates. While PW values are not particularly high, adequate moisture is available for efficient downbursts. Over the next few hours, scattered strong/locally severe storms will propagate toward southern NM with an attendant risk for severe gusts, or even marginally severe hail. However, boundary-layer cooling should lead to weakening updrafts in the next few hours and the severe threat will lessen markedly after 03-04z. ..Darrow.. 09/06/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052310
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions could support
gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 5 22:22:02 UTC 2024.