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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

MD 2066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131751Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster has recently become better organized across the FL Panhandle. The KEVX VWP depicts backed (but also relatively weak) low-level flow with modest southwesterly flow aloft, supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt. Modest heating is ongoing downstream of this cluster, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. This may help to sustain the ongoing cluster, along with some potential for additional development into southwest GA with time. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, along with some potential for a tornado where surface flow remains backed through the afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31138617 31558524 32018376 31368328 30968342 30228388 29998463 30118551 30318602 30528600 31138617 Read more

MD 2065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF AL INTO MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of AL into middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131721Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado may increase into this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A remnant surface low is located over northern AR early this afternoon. An occluded front extends east-northeast of the low into western TN, then extends southeast as a stationary or warm front across parts of northern/central AL into western GA. Farther south, a cold front is moving across MS, with a surface trough/wind shift noted to the east from western AL into southern MS. In the vicinity of these boundaries, convection is gradually increasing from western AL into southern middle TN, and a few cells across northwest AL have exhibited some weak rotation. While low-level flow/shear has gradually decreased as the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Francine has weakened, effective SRH of around 100 m2/s2 and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to favor occasionally organized convection into this afternoon. MLCAPE will increase to near or above 1000 J/kg, with an increase in convective coverage expected with time within a weakly capped environment. A few marginal supercells could evolve with time, and a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in a zone between the surface trough/wind shift approaching from the west and the effective warm front to the east, where low-level flow will remain locally backed as gradual heating/destabilization continues. Otherwise, locally damaging winds will be possible, especially if any localized clustering of convection can develop with time. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG... LAT...LON 32228565 31618689 31888728 32568749 34138797 34948822 35448837 35718835 35898821 36088759 36108707 35658637 33948592 32638572 32228565 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located southeast of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 17:42:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 15:28:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131741 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 109.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Recently-received satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 11:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.4, -109.3 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.