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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Friday. ...AL/GA/TN vicinity... The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the AR/TN border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level winds relative to Thursday. Still, a belt of adequate low-level southeasterlies may persist during the morning to afternoon over a portion of the southern Appalachians towards the Lower OH Valley. A mesoscale corridor of modest low-level SRH coincident with weak surface-based instability may develop during the day. This corridor will likely be narrow, with a drier air mass/veered low-level winds to its west and cooler temps/lower mean mixing ratios to its northeast. Confidence is not great enough yet to delineate a low-probability tornado threat. ...Central Dakotas to the central High Plains... As the primary shortwave impulse and attendant surface cyclone advance north-northeast over SK to western MB, its trailing Pacific cold front should move east towards the central Dakotas to central High Plains by Friday afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture will be limited ahead of the front to the west of decaying Francine, but may be adequate for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the front during the late afternoon and early evening. Mid-level winds will be strongest over ND, but largely parallel to the front and instability appears weakest here. Greater boundary-layer heating and modestly enhanced moistening should occur in the central High Plains, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises and modest deep-layer shear will be limiting factors. While locally strong gusts are possible, this threat appears insufficient for a low-probability severe highlight. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Friday. ...AL/GA/TN vicinity... The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the AR/TN border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level winds relative to Thursday. Still, a belt of adequate low-level southeasterlies may persist during the morning to afternoon over a portion of the southern Appalachians towards the Lower OH Valley. A mesoscale corridor of modest low-level SRH coincident with weak surface-based instability may develop during the day. This corridor will likely be narrow, with a drier air mass/veered low-level winds to its west and cooler temps/lower mean mixing ratios to its northeast. Confidence is not great enough yet to delineate a low-probability tornado threat. ...Central Dakotas to the central High Plains... As the primary shortwave impulse and attendant surface cyclone advance north-northeast over SK to western MB, its trailing Pacific cold front should move east towards the central Dakotas to central High Plains by Friday afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture will be limited ahead of the front to the west of decaying Francine, but may be adequate for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the front during the late afternoon and early evening. Mid-level winds will be strongest over ND, but largely parallel to the front and instability appears weakest here. Greater boundary-layer heating and modestly enhanced moistening should occur in the central High Plains, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises and modest deep-layer shear will be limiting factors. While locally strong gusts are possible, this threat appears insufficient for a low-probability severe highlight. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Friday. ...AL/GA/TN vicinity... The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the AR/TN border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level winds relative to Thursday. Still, a belt of adequate low-level southeasterlies may persist during the morning to afternoon over a portion of the southern Appalachians towards the Lower OH Valley. A mesoscale corridor of modest low-level SRH coincident with weak surface-based instability may develop during the day. This corridor will likely be narrow, with a drier air mass/veered low-level winds to its west and cooler temps/lower mean mixing ratios to its northeast. Confidence is not great enough yet to delineate a low-probability tornado threat. ...Central Dakotas to the central High Plains... As the primary shortwave impulse and attendant surface cyclone advance north-northeast over SK to western MB, its trailing Pacific cold front should move east towards the central Dakotas to central High Plains by Friday afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture will be limited ahead of the front to the west of decaying Francine, but may be adequate for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the front during the late afternoon and early evening. Mid-level winds will be strongest over ND, but largely parallel to the front and instability appears weakest here. Greater boundary-layer heating and modestly enhanced moistening should occur in the central High Plains, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises and modest deep-layer shear will be limiting factors. While locally strong gusts are possible, this threat appears insufficient for a low-probability severe highlight. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Friday. ...AL/GA/TN vicinity... The remnants of TC Francine are expected to decay in place near the AR/TN border vicinity on Friday, with greater weakening of low-level winds relative to Thursday. Still, a belt of adequate low-level southeasterlies may persist during the morning to afternoon over a portion of the southern Appalachians towards the Lower OH Valley. A mesoscale corridor of modest low-level SRH coincident with weak surface-based instability may develop during the day. This corridor will likely be narrow, with a drier air mass/veered low-level winds to its west and cooler temps/lower mean mixing ratios to its northeast. Confidence is not great enough yet to delineate a low-probability tornado threat. ...Central Dakotas to the central High Plains... As the primary shortwave impulse and attendant surface cyclone advance north-northeast over SK to western MB, its trailing Pacific cold front should move east towards the central Dakotas to central High Plains by Friday afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture will be limited ahead of the front to the west of decaying Francine, but may be adequate for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near the front during the late afternoon and early evening. Mid-level winds will be strongest over ND, but largely parallel to the front and instability appears weakest here. Greater boundary-layer heating and modestly enhanced moistening should occur in the central High Plains, but neutral to weak mid-level height rises and modest deep-layer shear will be limiting factors. While locally strong gusts are possible, this threat appears insufficient for a low-probability severe highlight. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL AL AND IN EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Hurricane Francine is forecast by NHC to be in a weakening phase from a tropical storm to a depression on Thursday, as it steadily moves north from parts of western/central MS into the Mid-South. With this process occurring throughout D2, tornado potential should be focused during the first half of the period. Rather enlarged low-level hodographs initially should gradually shrink from south to north, but will remain overlapped with rich 70s surface dew points through at least the afternoon. Consensus of CAM guidance largely suggests multiple opportunities for convective bands during this time frame. Primary threat in the morning should initially be confined across the FL Panhandle into south AL. This should shift north along the leading edge of the rich tropical moisture into central to perhaps north AL during the afternoon. The northern extent of the low-probability tornado threat over the TN Valley appears nebulous, where scant surface-based buoyancy can become coincident with large SRH. ...Eastern MT vicinity... A northern Rockies to Great Basin shortwave trough will move gradually east into the northern High Plains to central Rockies by Thursday evening. Guidance remains highly consistent with the ejection of an embedded impulse and attendant meridional mid-level jetlet impinging on the eastern MT/WY region during the late afternoon to early evening. This will increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, while being favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. Spread in guidance is greater with the degree of available buoyancy as boundary-layer moisture remains limited. But a ribbon of low to mid 50s surface dew points appears plausible on the backside of a deep surface cyclone drifting from far eastern MT into south SK. This would support a confined corridor of at least weak buoyancy, which should be enhanced by cooling mid-level temperatures with the approaching trough. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near the WY/MT border area during the mid to late afternoon and quickly advance north-northeast. Amid a highly elongated mid to upper hodograph, long-lived mid-level rotation and small-scale bowing segments may occur, capable of producing swaths of large hail and severe gusts through about dusk. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL AL AND IN EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Hurricane Francine is forecast by NHC to be in a weakening phase from a tropical storm to a depression on Thursday, as it steadily moves north from parts of western/central MS into the Mid-South. With this process occurring throughout D2, tornado potential should be focused during the first half of the period. Rather enlarged low-level hodographs initially should gradually shrink from south to north, but will remain overlapped with rich 70s surface dew points through at least the afternoon. Consensus of CAM guidance largely suggests multiple opportunities for convective bands during this time frame. Primary threat in the morning should initially be confined across the FL Panhandle into south AL. This should shift north along the leading edge of the rich tropical moisture into central to perhaps north AL during the afternoon. The northern extent of the low-probability tornado threat over the TN Valley appears nebulous, where scant surface-based buoyancy can become coincident with large SRH. ...Eastern MT vicinity... A northern Rockies to Great Basin shortwave trough will move gradually east into the northern High Plains to central Rockies by Thursday evening. Guidance remains highly consistent with the ejection of an embedded impulse and attendant meridional mid-level jetlet impinging on the eastern MT/WY region during the late afternoon to early evening. This will increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, while being favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. Spread in guidance is greater with the degree of available buoyancy as boundary-layer moisture remains limited. But a ribbon of low to mid 50s surface dew points appears plausible on the backside of a deep surface cyclone drifting from far eastern MT into south SK. This would support a confined corridor of at least weak buoyancy, which should be enhanced by cooling mid-level temperatures with the approaching trough. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near the WY/MT border area during the mid to late afternoon and quickly advance north-northeast. Amid a highly elongated mid to upper hodograph, long-lived mid-level rotation and small-scale bowing segments may occur, capable of producing swaths of large hail and severe gusts through about dusk. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL AL AND IN EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Hurricane Francine is forecast by NHC to be in a weakening phase from a tropical storm to a depression on Thursday, as it steadily moves north from parts of western/central MS into the Mid-South. With this process occurring throughout D2, tornado potential should be focused during the first half of the period. Rather enlarged low-level hodographs initially should gradually shrink from south to north, but will remain overlapped with rich 70s surface dew points through at least the afternoon. Consensus of CAM guidance largely suggests multiple opportunities for convective bands during this time frame. Primary threat in the morning should initially be confined across the FL Panhandle into south AL. This should shift north along the leading edge of the rich tropical moisture into central to perhaps north AL during the afternoon. The northern extent of the low-probability tornado threat over the TN Valley appears nebulous, where scant surface-based buoyancy can become coincident with large SRH. ...Eastern MT vicinity... A northern Rockies to Great Basin shortwave trough will move gradually east into the northern High Plains to central Rockies by Thursday evening. Guidance remains highly consistent with the ejection of an embedded impulse and attendant meridional mid-level jetlet impinging on the eastern MT/WY region during the late afternoon to early evening. This will increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, while being favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. Spread in guidance is greater with the degree of available buoyancy as boundary-layer moisture remains limited. But a ribbon of low to mid 50s surface dew points appears plausible on the backside of a deep surface cyclone drifting from far eastern MT into south SK. This would support a confined corridor of at least weak buoyancy, which should be enhanced by cooling mid-level temperatures with the approaching trough. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near the WY/MT border area during the mid to late afternoon and quickly advance north-northeast. Amid a highly elongated mid to upper hodograph, long-lived mid-level rotation and small-scale bowing segments may occur, capable of producing swaths of large hail and severe gusts through about dusk. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL AL AND IN EASTERN MT... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Hurricane Francine is forecast by NHC to be in a weakening phase from a tropical storm to a depression on Thursday, as it steadily moves north from parts of western/central MS into the Mid-South. With this process occurring throughout D2, tornado potential should be focused during the first half of the period. Rather enlarged low-level hodographs initially should gradually shrink from south to north, but will remain overlapped with rich 70s surface dew points through at least the afternoon. Consensus of CAM guidance largely suggests multiple opportunities for convective bands during this time frame. Primary threat in the morning should initially be confined across the FL Panhandle into south AL. This should shift north along the leading edge of the rich tropical moisture into central to perhaps north AL during the afternoon. The northern extent of the low-probability tornado threat over the TN Valley appears nebulous, where scant surface-based buoyancy can become coincident with large SRH. ...Eastern MT vicinity... A northern Rockies to Great Basin shortwave trough will move gradually east into the northern High Plains to central Rockies by Thursday evening. Guidance remains highly consistent with the ejection of an embedded impulse and attendant meridional mid-level jetlet impinging on the eastern MT/WY region during the late afternoon to early evening. This will increase large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear, while being favorably timed with peak boundary-layer heating. Spread in guidance is greater with the degree of available buoyancy as boundary-layer moisture remains limited. But a ribbon of low to mid 50s surface dew points appears plausible on the backside of a deep surface cyclone drifting from far eastern MT into south SK. This would support a confined corridor of at least weak buoyancy, which should be enhanced by cooling mid-level temperatures with the approaching trough. Scattered thunderstorms should develop near the WY/MT border area during the mid to late afternoon and quickly advance north-northeast. Amid a highly elongated mid to upper hodograph, long-lived mid-level rotation and small-scale bowing segments may occur, capable of producing swaths of large hail and severe gusts through about dusk. ..Grams.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity on Wednesday into Wednesday night, in association with Tropical Cyclone Francine. ...Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Francine is forecast to continue northeastward across the northwest Gulf of Mexico today, likely making landfall over the central LA Coast during the afternoon. Easterly/northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Southeast from the morning through the afternoon, which will likely keep the tropical airmass associated with this cyclone offshore (or only over immediate coastal portions of south-central and southeast LA). As the storm makes landfall, mid 70s dewpoints will spread northward into more of southeast LA, southern MS, southern AL, and the far western FL Panhandle during the evening. This increased low-level moisture could boast buoyancy enough for more sustained/persistent updrafts. Robust low to mid-level wind fields associated with the cyclone will support rotation within any more persistent updrafts, with some isolated low-topped supercells possible. Current guidance suggests the highest tornado potential will exist from 21Z through 04Z from far southeast LA across southern MS/AL. Mid 70s dewpoints and southerly/southeasterly surface winds will persist from southern MS/AL into the far western FL Panhandle, supporting a low-probability tornado risk through early Thursday morning. ...Parts of the Northwest/Northern Rockies... The strong shortwave trough currently off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to continue eastward throughout the period, while also deepening/maturing. By early Thursday morning, this shortwave trough will likely extend from the ID Chimney/northwest MT into the Great Basin. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave, spreading eastward from northern CA through the Great Basin as the wave progresses eastward. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures are already in place from the northern Intermountain West into the northern Rockies, with 500 mb temperatures from -11.5 to -14 deg C sampled on the regional 00Z soundings. Strong heating and boundary-layer mixing beneath these cool mid-level temperature will result in modest buoyancy during the afternoon ahead of the shortwave trough. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent increases amid this destabilized and modest buoyant airmass. The stronger flow and vertical shear will be displaced south of the region, but moderate shear combined with the cool temperatures aloft could still contribute to some isolated hail. High cloud bases and resultant strong outflow could result in some gusty winds as well. ...Northern High Plains... Lee surface troughing will deepen throughout the day, with southeasterly surface winds increasing in response. Strong heating/mixing is anticipated across the region. Low-level moisture advection may help offset some of this mixing but dewpoints will likely still drop into the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the region. Highest dewpoints are anticipated across northeastern MT and western North Dakota. Even with this limited moisture, the strong heating should destabilize the airmass. Late afternoon thunderstorms are anticipated with this destabilized airmass as both increasing large-scale ascent and low-level convergence provide the lift needed for convective initiation. Vertical shear will likely be strong enough for some updraft organization (particularly across northwest MT), and high cloud bases will contribute to the potential for strong outflow capable of damaging gusts. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/11/2024 Read more