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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL ALABAMA AND IN EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... On Thursday, a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts will also be possible across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will become negatively tilted across the northern Rockies on Thursday afternoon as a moderately strong mid-level jet streak wraps around the southern periphery of the primary trough. At the same time, Hurricane Francine will undergo extratropical transition across portions of the Southeast. ...FL Panhandle to the TN Valley... Thursday morning, backed surface winds and favorable hodographs for low-level rotating updrafts will be present along the Florida/Alabama coastal region. In addition, a tropical airmass with upper 70s dewpoints will support MLCAPE of 2000+ J/kg during the morning hours. South-southeasterly surface winds during the late morning will veer to south-southwesterly by the early afternoon hours which will lessen low-level shear and also lead to some dry-air advection and weaker instability during the afternoon and evening. Therefore, the primary tornado threat across the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama should be confined to the morning hours. By early-to-mid afternoon, guidance indicates at least some clearing of cloud-cover across central Alabama which may result in some surface heating and destabilization with MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg possible. The potential for this increase in diurnal instability may overlap the period when the most favorable wind profile also exists across the same region. This could result in a threat for a few tornadic storms across central Alabama during the mid-to-late afternoon period. ...Eastern Montana vicinity... Strong forcing will overspread eastern Montana Thursday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region. A well-mixed, relatively moisture-starved airmass will exist ahead of the cold front/surface low. However, in the immediate wake of the cold front, prior to the colder surface air, better moisture will wrap around the surface low. This will lead to a narrow corridor of weak to moderate instability and the potential for scattered thunderstorms. Strong effective shear (55+ knots) will exist in this post-frontal airmass where storms are anticipated. Therefore, supercells or a few bowing segments may be possible with a threat for severe wind gusts and large hail. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE GREAT BASIN... No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough over the western US is forecast to continue intensifying as it moves over the Northwest and northern Great Basin today and tonight. Mid-level flow over much of the West will increase as an attendant mid-level jet approaches. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves in from the northwest. To the east, Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concern today and tonight. ...Great Basin and Northwest... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will overspread the western Great Basin through tonight. A surface low over eastern NV will quickly deepen, supporting 20-25 mph winds over much of the Great Basin and Intermountain West. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra Front and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30+ mph will be possible, along with localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front, as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early D2/Thursday. Across parts of the Northwest, strong lift from the trough and deepening moisture behind the cold front will promote scattered thunderstorms. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies despite higher RH. A few drier strikes will remain possible, but overall lightning concerns should be limited by the potential for wetting rainfall. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... With the upper trough intensifying to the west, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains today and continuing into D2/Thursday. A surface low will quickly deepen in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains through this evening. A few high-based thunderstorms may also support gusty outflow winds across the central High Plains and Front range. Fire-weather concerns may continue overnight as a pronounced low-level jet supports southerly gusts to 25 mph amid only modest humidity recovery. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast today and tonight, offshore winds will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. Humidity values will not be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching. However, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of MS and northern LA before rain chances increase into early D2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more