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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more