Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 5 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 5 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 the center of Milton was located near 22.7, -95.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 052114 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 2...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Corrected references to a depression in discussion and hazards sections ...MILTON FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 95.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM N OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge watches will likely be required for portions of Florida on Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 95.5 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow east-northeastward motion is expected to begin tonight. A slightly faster eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml Rainfall: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:52:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 21:23:12 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052048 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Kirk continues to have a tight inner core, with deep convection wrapping around the center. The eye has continued to become more cloud filled, as shear increases over the system. The latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have held mostly steady with this cycle, and the initial intensity is held at 105 kt. Kirk continues to move northward and increase forward speed with an estimated motion of (005/17 kt) between a trough located over the west-central Atlantic and a subtropical ridge in the east Atlantic. Model track guidance remains tightly clustered, although there has been a slight shift southward as the system transitions and becomes post-tropical. The NHC forecast track shows the center of Kirk passing just to the north of the Azores on Monday as an extratropical cyclone, and then moving across the northeastern Atlantic and over western Europe by the middle of next week. The official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, with a slight nudge southward towards the end of the period following the consensus model trends. Wind shear has started to increase over Kirk this afternoon, but the inner core has been able to remain intact. However, the environment will only continue to become more hostile as wind shear continues to increase, with drier mid-level air, and cooler sea surface temperatures. Therefore, steady weakening is forecast through early next week. The system should lose tropical characteristics and transition to a strong extratropical cyclone around 60 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the previous one in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of weakening in agreement with the latest HCCA and simple consensus aids. Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells will likely increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles beginning later today, much of the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas by Sunday, and the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 29.6N 50.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 32.1N 49.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 43.5N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1800Z 44.3N 19.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1800Z 47.7N .5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1800Z 55.8N 14.9E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:48:37 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 21:35:09 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 052048 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 20:48:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Oct 2024 21:29:07 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 052047 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SAT OCT 05 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......200NE 190SE 140SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 480SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.0W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 50.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.1N 49.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 35.8N 47.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 170SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.2N 42.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 36.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 160SE 130SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 130SE 130SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 230SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 44.3N 19.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 250SE 230SW 165NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 47.7N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 200SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 55.8N 14.9E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052047 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...KIRK MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 50.0W ABOUT 1140 MI...1835 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 50.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A faster northeastward motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Kirk is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast through early next week, but Kirk will remain a large hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas tonight and Sunday, and to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...KIRK MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS FROM KIRK EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUNDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Kirk was located near 29.6, -50.0 with movement N at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.