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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE NC/SC COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes will be most likely during the morning and remain possible into the afternoon on Friday, across parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Carolinas/VA... TC Helene is forecast by NHC to become a tropical storm by 12Z Friday as it quickly progresses inland over the Southeast. This cyclone will further weaken as it rotates around and becomes further absorbed with an existing closed mid-level low over the Deep South. The associated low-level wind field, coincident with a rich tropical moisture plume on the eastern semicircle, will be strongest at the start of the period and weaken appreciably during the afternoon. Hodograph enlargement will be pronounced in the morning, but should still remain adequate for a tornado threat into the afternoon. A lower-topped convective band will be ongoing at 12Z, most likely centered over the Pee Dee of SC to the Piedmont of the NC/SC border area. This should advance quickly north through the rest of the morning into the afternoon across the NC Piedmont/Coastal Plain and southern VA. The greatest relative tornado threat should be along the NC/SC border area near the coast through late morning. As a dry slot punches rapidly north-northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will come to an abrupt end from south to north. Shrinking hodographs within the rich tropical moisture plume should result in a more spatially confined/waning threat later in the day. ..Grams.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the coastal Southeast in association with Hurricane Helene. The greatest threat is expected across parts of Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina. ...Florida/Georgia into the Carolinas... Hurricane Helene is currently centered about 200 miles southwest of SRQ. This system is characterized by a very broad/expansive wind field, with the VAD profiles at JAX and CLX showing 50 and 35 kt at 2 km, respectively. Stronger low-level winds are already in place across FL. Rotation has been noted in cells both off the central FL Panhandle south of TLH as well as from coastal GA into the SC Low Country. The general trend of rotation within the deeper, more cellular convection is expected to continue throughout the day into the evening across the entire region, with some chance for an increased frequency of rotating cells given the strengthening wind profiles. Best overlap between modest buoyancy and veering low-level wind profiles is still expected to occur from southeast GA northward into coastal SC and far southern NC (i.e. ILM vicinity). For much of this region, the higher dewpoints currently remain offshore, but additional advection inland is anticipated as the system moves northward. This additional low-level moisture should increase buoyancy slightly, which is expected to result in a relatively higher tornado threat. This relatively higher tornado risk is expected from 04Z to 18Z Friday, which bridges the Day 1 and Day 2 periods. As such, additional information regarding the tornado risk for this area can be found in the Day 2 Convective Outlook. ..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/26/2024 Read more

MD 2112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0912 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Areas affected...southern Georgia...northern Florida and portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261412Z - 261515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado threat will continue to gradually increase in advance of Hurricane Helene, across southern Georgia/northern Florida and adjacent areas. Tornado Watch issuance will likely be needed in the next hour. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows widespread rain, and embedded/small convective cores moving north-northwestward across the northeastern Gulf and adjacent portions of the Florida Panhandle. Small/offshore cells are exhibiting low-level rotation, moving northwestward toward Gulf and Franklin Counties, southwest of Tallahassee. With occasional rotation expected with convective elements within the broader convective bands north and northeast of Helene given increasingly favorable low-level shear, and thus a long-duration tornado risk, a Tornado Watch will likely be needed shortly. ..Goss/Mosier.. 09/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 30378651 31518524 31578030 29318011 29368384 29338581 30378651 Read more