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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... The upper low over the OH Valley will weaken and become an open wave early next week. Meanwhile, upper troughing across the east will be reinforced through midweek by a shortwave trough developing east/southeast across the Great Lakes. A surface cold front will develop east/southeast across much of the Plains and Midwest through Day 6/Tue. However stronger deep-layer flow will remain displaced well to the north and behind the front. Meanwhile, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail across the Southwest/Four Corner, while a series of shortwave troughs migrate through more progressive northern stream flow near the international border in the vicinity of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Overall severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The closed mid/upper low will progress east across the OH/TN Valleys on Saturday, weakening with time. Enhanced southwesterly flow will prevail on the eastern periphery of this system, from parts of northern FL to the Mid-Atlantic. A moist boundary layer will also prevail across parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, dry midlevels and poor lapse rates will limit instability across much of the region, with the exception being parts of the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the FL Peninsula, but poor lapse rates, weak instability and only modest effective shear will limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern Virginia on Friday. ...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic... The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F (resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field, strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective processes, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 09/26/2024 Read more