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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially in the southern High Plains will pivot through the southern Plains and parts of the lower Mississippi Valley while becoming negatively tilted on Thursday. Low to mid 60s F dewpoints are expected to advect northward ahead of a modestly deep surface trough in parts of central into East Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity. A compact mid-level jet max and ascent will be favorably timed for organized storm development by mid afternoon. This activity should continue into the evening in to parts of western Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. ...Parts of central/East Texas into western Louisiana... Ongoing precipitation near the I-35 corridor is expected early in the period. This will have some impact on the exact timing/location of greater destabilization by the afternoon. Forecast guidance suggests that the most robust convection will occur by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 45-55 kts will promote organized storm structures. Convection in portions of North/Northeast Texas has a higher probability of being linear given the stronger forcing for ascent, though embedded supercells may occur. A more discrete mode is possible in East Texas with stronger shear within the mid-level jet core that will be less parallel to the surface trough. The low-level jet is expected to increase as it translates eastward allowing the tornado threat to continue into early evening. Damaging winds and tornadoes will likely be the primary hazards, though mid-level lapse rates/temperatures on the western flank of the warm sector would support a large hail threat with discrete convection. The eastward extent of the severe threat will be limited by decreasing moisture/mid-level lapse rates eventually. With low to mid 60s F dewpoints continuing to push northward, destabilization will continue into the evening in parts western/central Louisiana. Should convection maintain organization, as suggested by the latest ECMWF, risk could extend farther east than previously thought. The Slight risk has been extended eastward to account for this potential. ..Wendt.. 12/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough accompanied by strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the southern Rockies, while a related surface cyclone deepens over the central/southern High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions will develop across portions of southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region. However, these conditions should be too localized/marginal for an appreciable fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Dec 23 22:23:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 23 22:23:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will result in several mid-level troughs traversing the CONUS this week into early next week. Several instances of surface lee troughing/cyclone development are likely across the central CONUS as surface high pressure dominates the East Coast and much of the U.S. west of the Rockies. Cool conditions in the northern CONUS, as well as appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and east of the central Plains (to the East Coast) should limit significant wildfire spread concerns over most locales. Occasionally dry and/or breezy conditions may occur over the High Plains by afternoon peak heating on several days given the anticipated frequency of surface lee trough/cyclone development over the central U.S. However, overlapping dry low-level air, stronger surface winds, and receptive fuels, should be too localized or brief to support significant wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for the southern Plains, based on recent CAM guidance. Please see previous discussion for more details. ..Hart.. 12/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A modifying air mass is returning northward into TX from the western Gulf basin, and continued low-level warming/moistening will result in gradual destabilization. Modest amplification of a midlevel trough over the southern High Plains, in combination with an increasingly moist warm advection regime, will support the potential for a few elevated thunderstorms this evening into tonight across parts of OK/north TX. There is also a small chance for near-surface-based thunderstorms along a confluence zone from Matagorda Bay northward into the western parts of southeast TX. Otherwise, a midlevel trough over the eastern Pacific will approach northern CA late in the period, when weak destabilization could support sufficiently deep convection for isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, the potential for deep convection will increase through the period in association with air mass modification and weak cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream. However, the potential for thunderstorms is expected to remain offshore. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will weaken as it moves from East Texas to the Southeast on Wednesday. Some remnant thunderstorms may persist early in the period, but should weaken by the afternoon as mid-level heights rise and forcing weakens. A second, stronger mid-level trough will advance across the Southwest and become a closed mid-level low across the northeastern New Mexico vicinity by the end of the period. Surface moisture will remain across far southeast Texas on Wednesday night, but a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the mid-level trough may result in some moistening in the 1 to 3 km layer and some weak elevated instability by the end of the period across West Texas into the Texas Panhandle. This combined with forcing for ascent, may result in a few thunderstorms near 12Z Thursday. No severe storms are anticipated due to the weak instability. In addition, a mid-level shortwave trough will move onto the Oregon coast after 06Z Thu. Forecast soundings ahead of the associated surface front show mostly moist-adiabatic thermal profiles, but some weak instability may be present and result in a few thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will weaken as it moves from East Texas to the Southeast on Wednesday. Some remnant thunderstorms may persist early in the period, but should weaken by the afternoon as mid-level heights rise and forcing weakens. A second, stronger mid-level trough will advance across the Southwest and become a closed mid-level low across the northeastern New Mexico vicinity by the end of the period. Surface moisture will remain across far southeast Texas on Wednesday night, but a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the mid-level trough may result in some moistening in the 1 to 3 km layer and some weak elevated instability by the end of the period across West Texas into the Texas Panhandle. This combined with forcing for ascent, may result in a few thunderstorms near 12Z Thursday. No severe storms are anticipated due to the weak instability. In addition, a mid-level shortwave trough will move onto the Oregon coast after 06Z Thu. Forecast soundings ahead of the associated surface front show mostly moist-adiabatic thermal profiles, but some weak instability may be present and result in a few thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will weaken as it moves from East Texas to the Southeast on Wednesday. Some remnant thunderstorms may persist early in the period, but should weaken by the afternoon as mid-level heights rise and forcing weakens. A second, stronger mid-level trough will advance across the Southwest and become a closed mid-level low across the northeastern New Mexico vicinity by the end of the period. Surface moisture will remain across far southeast Texas on Wednesday night, but a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the mid-level trough may result in some moistening in the 1 to 3 km layer and some weak elevated instability by the end of the period across West Texas into the Texas Panhandle. This combined with forcing for ascent, may result in a few thunderstorms near 12Z Thursday. No severe storms are anticipated due to the weak instability. In addition, a mid-level shortwave trough will move onto the Oregon coast after 06Z Thu. Forecast soundings ahead of the associated surface front show mostly moist-adiabatic thermal profiles, but some weak instability may be present and result in a few thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will weaken as it moves from East Texas to the Southeast on Wednesday. Some remnant thunderstorms may persist early in the period, but should weaken by the afternoon as mid-level heights rise and forcing weakens. A second, stronger mid-level trough will advance across the Southwest and become a closed mid-level low across the northeastern New Mexico vicinity by the end of the period. Surface moisture will remain across far southeast Texas on Wednesday night, but a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the mid-level trough may result in some moistening in the 1 to 3 km layer and some weak elevated instability by the end of the period across West Texas into the Texas Panhandle. This combined with forcing for ascent, may result in a few thunderstorms near 12Z Thursday. No severe storms are anticipated due to the weak instability. In addition, a mid-level shortwave trough will move onto the Oregon coast after 06Z Thu. Forecast soundings ahead of the associated surface front show mostly moist-adiabatic thermal profiles, but some weak instability may be present and result in a few thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will weaken as it moves from East Texas to the Southeast on Wednesday. Some remnant thunderstorms may persist early in the period, but should weaken by the afternoon as mid-level heights rise and forcing weakens. A second, stronger mid-level trough will advance across the Southwest and become a closed mid-level low across the northeastern New Mexico vicinity by the end of the period. Surface moisture will remain across far southeast Texas on Wednesday night, but a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the mid-level trough may result in some moistening in the 1 to 3 km layer and some weak elevated instability by the end of the period across West Texas into the Texas Panhandle. This combined with forcing for ascent, may result in a few thunderstorms near 12Z Thursday. No severe storms are anticipated due to the weak instability. In addition, a mid-level shortwave trough will move onto the Oregon coast after 06Z Thu. Forecast soundings ahead of the associated surface front show mostly moist-adiabatic thermal profiles, but some weak instability may be present and result in a few thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Mon Dec 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Christmas Day (Wednesday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will weaken as it moves from East Texas to the Southeast on Wednesday. Some remnant thunderstorms may persist early in the period, but should weaken by the afternoon as mid-level heights rise and forcing weakens. A second, stronger mid-level trough will advance across the Southwest and become a closed mid-level low across the northeastern New Mexico vicinity by the end of the period. Surface moisture will remain across far southeast Texas on Wednesday night, but a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the mid-level trough may result in some moistening in the 1 to 3 km layer and some weak elevated instability by the end of the period across West Texas into the Texas Panhandle. This combined with forcing for ascent, may result in a few thunderstorms near 12Z Thursday. No severe storms are anticipated due to the weak instability. In addition, a mid-level shortwave trough will move onto the Oregon coast after 06Z Thu. Forecast soundings ahead of the associated surface front show mostly moist-adiabatic thermal profiles, but some weak instability may be present and result in a few thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/23/2024 Read more