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Just one of five water pumps were running at a time at Watergarden in an effort to conserve water while Corpus Christi was in stage 3 water restrictions. City of Corpus Christi (Texas), Dec 18, 2024

The annual Thanksgiving bonfire was postponed in November due to the fire risk and extreme drought and was rescheduled to take place on Dec. 28. Massachusetts experienced many wildfires during the recent historic dry spell with 1200% more wildfires than usual in October. The bonfire tradition began in the 1960s. WBZ News Radio (Boston, Mass.), Dec 18, 2024

The low level of Canyon Lake led a restaurant and bar to close its doors for the remainder of 2024, but the establishment’s outdoor bar will be open on weekends. As of November 14, Canyon Lake was at 52% of capacity with a mean water level of 882 feet, according to Water Data for Texas. Customers were disappointed about the restaurant closing and were praying for rain. MySA (San Antonio, Texas), Nov 14, 2024

The heat and lack of rain during the autumn killed many evergreen tree species on the Eastern Shore. One Christmas tree grower in Denton lost about 300 mature trees and 1,700 new seedlings, even ones watered with drip irrigation. The owner intended to plant extra trees. Another Christmas tree farm owner stated that this was the first year in 40 years of operation that all of the trees have needed water. A Christmas tree farm owner in Galena lost 1,500 of the 2,000 trees. Altogether, nearly 2,000 trees perished. They purchased additional trees from another tree grower to have an adequate supply for their customers. My Eastern Shore (Cambridge, Md.), Dec 12, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early Wednesday morning across parts of northeast Texas and vicinity into western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... Gradual trough amplification will occur through the period across the Plains into the Midwest, as a shortwave trough digs from the central Rockies to the southern Plains tonight. At the surface, a weak cyclone should develop from the central High Plains to the Mid-South and lower OH Valley by early Wednesday morning. Greater low-level moisture, characterized by upper 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints, is in place across parts of the ArkLaTex to northern MS along/south of a convective outflow boundary/front. This moisture is forecast to spread gradually northward through tonight ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. A separate cold front will spread east-southeastward over parts of the southern Plains and mid MS Valley/Mid-South this evening and overnight. ...Northeast Texas to Western Tennessee... Robust convective development will likely be delayed until near/after 05Z tonight, as low-level warm advection and large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough gradually overspread the warm sector. Even though steeper mid-level lapse rates should lag/remain generally north of the cold front, weak instability (around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should be present in a narrow corridor along and just ahead of the front. This instability will become weaker and more limited with northeastward extent into middle TN, with an ill-defined cutoff to isolated severe potential somewhere in the western to middle TN vicinity. Strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow with the amplifying upper trough will eventually move into the ArkLaTex and Mid-South, mainly after 06Z, in tandem with modestly enhanced low-level southwesterlies. Sufficient speed shear should exist to support some updraft organization, although the orientation of the deep-layer shear vector will be nearly parallel to the surface front. Thunderstorm mergers and interactions appear likely, with eventual upscale growth into a line anticipated as the cold front intercepts the greater low-level moisture, especially after 09Z. Isolated hail may occur with initial convective development, before strong to occasionally damaging winds become the main threat in the last few hours of the period with the line. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. The overall severe threat should remain isolated due to the somewhat marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Gleason/Dean.. 12/17/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 17 16:35:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 17 16:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0954 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 12/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The dry fall in Maine has led to dry wells in 10 of the state’s 16 counties. The Maine Drought Task Force was aware of at least one dry well in each of the affected counties, including four in York County where conditions were the most severe, for a total of 20 wells so far. The next highest are Oxford and Kennebec counties each had three dry wells apiece. Dry wells were also reported in Androscoggin, Aroostook, Cumberland, Hancock, Lincoln, Waldo and Washington counties. The Piscataquis Observer (Dover-Foxcroft, Maine), Dec 17, 2024

New York City’s Central Park and Prospect Park canceled their fireworks shows to avoid inadvertently sparking a fire. A drone show will replace the fireworks in Prospect Park. PIX11 (New York City), Dec 5, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River region into western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, nearly zonal flow was evident over the CONUS from coast to coast, perturbed by several minor shortwaves. One of these, however, will amplify through the period and influence convective potential: a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southeastward today and begin to phase with a lesser trough now over southeastern MT and eastern WY. The combined trough should reach western MN, eastern SD, central NE, and central/western CO by 00Z. By 12Z, the trough should strengthen further, and extend near a line from DBQ-IRK-TUL-CDS. At 11Z, an outflow boundary was drawn from northwestern GA across central parts of AL/MS to northeastern LA and near TXK, where it intersected a slow-moving, weakening, cold to quasistationary front drawn near a CRW-CSV-HSV-ELD-CRS line. Farther north, frontogenesis and cyclogenesis will occur today over the central Plains, as the amplifying mid/upper trough approaches. By 00Z, a frontal-wave low should be located near TOP, with cold front southwestward across south-central KS, northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle, and northeastern NM. The low should move past PAH into western KY by 12Z, with cold front over eastern to southwestern AR, central to southwest TX, and the TX Big Bend region. The outflow boundary and residual front are expected to move slowly northward over the Arklatex and Mid-South regions through late evening, before being overtaken by the cold front. ...Red River region to Mid-South... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on either side of the northward-moving, slowly modifying outflow boundary from this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front intercepts that boundary, scattered thunderstorms should form tonight along the cold front. A marginal threat for all severe hazards exists, mainly overnight. As the pre-cold-frontal boundaries shift northward, a relatively undisturbed warm-sector airmass will spread over most of the outlook area before the cold front arrives late tonight. The strongest DCVA/cooling aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates related to the approaching trough will remain behind the cold front. However, a tightening height gradient, related strengthening deep shear, and large-scale lift within an intensifying LLJ/WAA plume will spread across the warm sector this evening and overnight. These processes will destabilize, moisten and increase shear in low levels. Surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F (greater southwestward) will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg from the Arklatex into at least southwestern TN, diminishing northeastward from there. A shallow, neutral to stable near-surface thermal profile will be present nocturnally, but may not preclude strong gusts or a tornado. Substantially front-parallel flow aloft will lead to a dominant quasi-linear mode with the frontal activity, but the marginal hail/tornado threat should exist with any antecedent, persistent, relatively discrete cells. Embedded LEWP/bowing configurations in the frontal band will pose the greatest local gust potential. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River region into western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, nearly zonal flow was evident over the CONUS from coast to coast, perturbed by several minor shortwaves. One of these, however, will amplify through the period and influence convective potential: a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southeastward today and begin to phase with a lesser trough now over southeastern MT and eastern WY. The combined trough should reach western MN, eastern SD, central NE, and central/western CO by 00Z. By 12Z, the trough should strengthen further, and extend near a line from DBQ-IRK-TUL-CDS. At 11Z, an outflow boundary was drawn from northwestern GA across central parts of AL/MS to northeastern LA and near TXK, where it intersected a slow-moving, weakening, cold to quasistationary front drawn near a CRW-CSV-HSV-ELD-CRS line. Farther north, frontogenesis and cyclogenesis will occur today over the central Plains, as the amplifying mid/upper trough approaches. By 00Z, a frontal-wave low should be located near TOP, with cold front southwestward across south-central KS, northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle, and northeastern NM. The low should move past PAH into western KY by 12Z, with cold front over eastern to southwestern AR, central to southwest TX, and the TX Big Bend region. The outflow boundary and residual front are expected to move slowly northward over the Arklatex and Mid-South regions through late evening, before being overtaken by the cold front. ...Red River region to Mid-South... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on either side of the northward-moving, slowly modifying outflow boundary from this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front intercepts that boundary, scattered thunderstorms should form tonight along the cold front. A marginal threat for all severe hazards exists, mainly overnight. As the pre-cold-frontal boundaries shift northward, a relatively undisturbed warm-sector airmass will spread over most of the outlook area before the cold front arrives late tonight. The strongest DCVA/cooling aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates related to the approaching trough will remain behind the cold front. However, a tightening height gradient, related strengthening deep shear, and large-scale lift within an intensifying LLJ/WAA plume will spread across the warm sector this evening and overnight. These processes will destabilize, moisten and increase shear in low levels. Surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F (greater southwestward) will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg from the Arklatex into at least southwestern TN, diminishing northeastward from there. A shallow, neutral to stable near-surface thermal profile will be present nocturnally, but may not preclude strong gusts or a tornado. Substantially front-parallel flow aloft will lead to a dominant quasi-linear mode with the frontal activity, but the marginal hail/tornado threat should exist with any antecedent, persistent, relatively discrete cells. Embedded LEWP/bowing configurations in the frontal band will pose the greatest local gust potential. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River region into western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, nearly zonal flow was evident over the CONUS from coast to coast, perturbed by several minor shortwaves. One of these, however, will amplify through the period and influence convective potential: a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southeastward today and begin to phase with a lesser trough now over southeastern MT and eastern WY. The combined trough should reach western MN, eastern SD, central NE, and central/western CO by 00Z. By 12Z, the trough should strengthen further, and extend near a line from DBQ-IRK-TUL-CDS. At 11Z, an outflow boundary was drawn from northwestern GA across central parts of AL/MS to northeastern LA and near TXK, where it intersected a slow-moving, weakening, cold to quasistationary front drawn near a CRW-CSV-HSV-ELD-CRS line. Farther north, frontogenesis and cyclogenesis will occur today over the central Plains, as the amplifying mid/upper trough approaches. By 00Z, a frontal-wave low should be located near TOP, with cold front southwestward across south-central KS, northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle, and northeastern NM. The low should move past PAH into western KY by 12Z, with cold front over eastern to southwestern AR, central to southwest TX, and the TX Big Bend region. The outflow boundary and residual front are expected to move slowly northward over the Arklatex and Mid-South regions through late evening, before being overtaken by the cold front. ...Red River region to Mid-South... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on either side of the northward-moving, slowly modifying outflow boundary from this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front intercepts that boundary, scattered thunderstorms should form tonight along the cold front. A marginal threat for all severe hazards exists, mainly overnight. As the pre-cold-frontal boundaries shift northward, a relatively undisturbed warm-sector airmass will spread over most of the outlook area before the cold front arrives late tonight. The strongest DCVA/cooling aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates related to the approaching trough will remain behind the cold front. However, a tightening height gradient, related strengthening deep shear, and large-scale lift within an intensifying LLJ/WAA plume will spread across the warm sector this evening and overnight. These processes will destabilize, moisten and increase shear in low levels. Surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F (greater southwestward) will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg from the Arklatex into at least southwestern TN, diminishing northeastward from there. A shallow, neutral to stable near-surface thermal profile will be present nocturnally, but may not preclude strong gusts or a tornado. Substantially front-parallel flow aloft will lead to a dominant quasi-linear mode with the frontal activity, but the marginal hail/tornado threat should exist with any antecedent, persistent, relatively discrete cells. Embedded LEWP/bowing configurations in the frontal band will pose the greatest local gust potential. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River region into western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, nearly zonal flow was evident over the CONUS from coast to coast, perturbed by several minor shortwaves. One of these, however, will amplify through the period and influence convective potential: a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southeastward today and begin to phase with a lesser trough now over southeastern MT and eastern WY. The combined trough should reach western MN, eastern SD, central NE, and central/western CO by 00Z. By 12Z, the trough should strengthen further, and extend near a line from DBQ-IRK-TUL-CDS. At 11Z, an outflow boundary was drawn from northwestern GA across central parts of AL/MS to northeastern LA and near TXK, where it intersected a slow-moving, weakening, cold to quasistationary front drawn near a CRW-CSV-HSV-ELD-CRS line. Farther north, frontogenesis and cyclogenesis will occur today over the central Plains, as the amplifying mid/upper trough approaches. By 00Z, a frontal-wave low should be located near TOP, with cold front southwestward across south-central KS, northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle, and northeastern NM. The low should move past PAH into western KY by 12Z, with cold front over eastern to southwestern AR, central to southwest TX, and the TX Big Bend region. The outflow boundary and residual front are expected to move slowly northward over the Arklatex and Mid-South regions through late evening, before being overtaken by the cold front. ...Red River region to Mid-South... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on either side of the northward-moving, slowly modifying outflow boundary from this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front intercepts that boundary, scattered thunderstorms should form tonight along the cold front. A marginal threat for all severe hazards exists, mainly overnight. As the pre-cold-frontal boundaries shift northward, a relatively undisturbed warm-sector airmass will spread over most of the outlook area before the cold front arrives late tonight. The strongest DCVA/cooling aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates related to the approaching trough will remain behind the cold front. However, a tightening height gradient, related strengthening deep shear, and large-scale lift within an intensifying LLJ/WAA plume will spread across the warm sector this evening and overnight. These processes will destabilize, moisten and increase shear in low levels. Surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F (greater southwestward) will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg from the Arklatex into at least southwestern TN, diminishing northeastward from there. A shallow, neutral to stable near-surface thermal profile will be present nocturnally, but may not preclude strong gusts or a tornado. Substantially front-parallel flow aloft will lead to a dominant quasi-linear mode with the frontal activity, but the marginal hail/tornado threat should exist with any antecedent, persistent, relatively discrete cells. Embedded LEWP/bowing configurations in the frontal band will pose the greatest local gust potential. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE RED RIVER REGION INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible tonight through early morning Wednesday across parts of the Red River region into western Tennessee. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, nearly zonal flow was evident over the CONUS from coast to coast, perturbed by several minor shortwaves. One of these, however, will amplify through the period and influence convective potential: a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the interior Pacific Northwest. This feature will dig southeastward today and begin to phase with a lesser trough now over southeastern MT and eastern WY. The combined trough should reach western MN, eastern SD, central NE, and central/western CO by 00Z. By 12Z, the trough should strengthen further, and extend near a line from DBQ-IRK-TUL-CDS. At 11Z, an outflow boundary was drawn from northwestern GA across central parts of AL/MS to northeastern LA and near TXK, where it intersected a slow-moving, weakening, cold to quasistationary front drawn near a CRW-CSV-HSV-ELD-CRS line. Farther north, frontogenesis and cyclogenesis will occur today over the central Plains, as the amplifying mid/upper trough approaches. By 00Z, a frontal-wave low should be located near TOP, with cold front southwestward across south-central KS, northwestern OK, the TX Panhandle, and northeastern NM. The low should move past PAH into western KY by 12Z, with cold front over eastern to southwestern AR, central to southwest TX, and the TX Big Bend region. The outflow boundary and residual front are expected to move slowly northward over the Arklatex and Mid-South regions through late evening, before being overtaken by the cold front. ...Red River region to Mid-South... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop on either side of the northward-moving, slowly modifying outflow boundary from this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front intercepts that boundary, scattered thunderstorms should form tonight along the cold front. A marginal threat for all severe hazards exists, mainly overnight. As the pre-cold-frontal boundaries shift northward, a relatively undisturbed warm-sector airmass will spread over most of the outlook area before the cold front arrives late tonight. The strongest DCVA/cooling aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates related to the approaching trough will remain behind the cold front. However, a tightening height gradient, related strengthening deep shear, and large-scale lift within an intensifying LLJ/WAA plume will spread across the warm sector this evening and overnight. These processes will destabilize, moisten and increase shear in low levels. Surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F (greater southwestward) will contribute to MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg from the Arklatex into at least southwestern TN, diminishing northeastward from there. A shallow, neutral to stable near-surface thermal profile will be present nocturnally, but may not preclude strong gusts or a tornado. Substantially front-parallel flow aloft will lead to a dominant quasi-linear mode with the frontal activity, but the marginal hail/tornado threat should exist with any antecedent, persistent, relatively discrete cells. Embedded LEWP/bowing configurations in the frontal band will pose the greatest local gust potential. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/17/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result in some increased thunderstorm chances across south/central TX on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. However, severe-thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result in some increased thunderstorm chances across south/central TX on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. However, severe-thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result in some increased thunderstorm chances across south/central TX on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. However, severe-thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 time frame. Read more