Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result in some increased thunderstorm chances across south/central TX on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. However, severe-thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result in some increased thunderstorm chances across south/central TX on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. However, severe-thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Strong surface high pressure over the central U.S. and a prior cold front intruding into the southern Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture across much of the CONUS through at least Day 6/Sun. As a result, thunderstorm chances will be low. Toward the end of the period, some forecast guidance suggests lee troughing will allow southeasterly low-level flow to bring modest Gulf moisture northward across TX. This may result in some increased thunderstorm chances across south/central TX on Day 7-8/Mon-Tue. However, severe-thunderstorm potential will remain low during the Day 4-8 time frame. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level ridging is expected to continue over the western US through D2/Wed. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will continue to intensify, supporting offshore flow across parts of southern CA. Santa Ana winds, in combination with low RH values, should allow for several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across southern CA. Offshore winds should gradually dissipate early D3/Thur as high pressure shifts eastward, ending the fire-weather risk. ...Southern California... Moderately strong high pressure in the Great Basin will drive offshore winds across parts of southern California D2/Wed. Winds will increase overnight D1/Tues, with gusts reaching 35-45 mph through the terrain-favored corridors. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as RH decreases with daytime heating. Winds are expected to diminish during the afternoon/evening, with elevated fire-weather conditions ending into early D3/Thur. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level ridging is expected to continue over the western US through D2/Wed. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will continue to intensify, supporting offshore flow across parts of southern CA. Santa Ana winds, in combination with low RH values, should allow for several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across southern CA. Offshore winds should gradually dissipate early D3/Thur as high pressure shifts eastward, ending the fire-weather risk. ...Southern California... Moderately strong high pressure in the Great Basin will drive offshore winds across parts of southern California D2/Wed. Winds will increase overnight D1/Tues, with gusts reaching 35-45 mph through the terrain-favored corridors. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as RH decreases with daytime heating. Winds are expected to diminish during the afternoon/evening, with elevated fire-weather conditions ending into early D3/Thur. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level ridging is expected to continue over the western US through D2/Wed. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will continue to intensify, supporting offshore flow across parts of southern CA. Santa Ana winds, in combination with low RH values, should allow for several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across southern CA. Offshore winds should gradually dissipate early D3/Thur as high pressure shifts eastward, ending the fire-weather risk. ...Southern California... Moderately strong high pressure in the Great Basin will drive offshore winds across parts of southern California D2/Wed. Winds will increase overnight D1/Tues, with gusts reaching 35-45 mph through the terrain-favored corridors. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as RH decreases with daytime heating. Winds are expected to diminish during the afternoon/evening, with elevated fire-weather conditions ending into early D3/Thur. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level ridging is expected to continue over the western US through D2/Wed. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will continue to intensify, supporting offshore flow across parts of southern CA. Santa Ana winds, in combination with low RH values, should allow for several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across southern CA. Offshore winds should gradually dissipate early D3/Thur as high pressure shifts eastward, ending the fire-weather risk. ...Southern California... Moderately strong high pressure in the Great Basin will drive offshore winds across parts of southern California D2/Wed. Winds will increase overnight D1/Tues, with gusts reaching 35-45 mph through the terrain-favored corridors. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as RH decreases with daytime heating. Winds are expected to diminish during the afternoon/evening, with elevated fire-weather conditions ending into early D3/Thur. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level ridging is expected to continue over the western US through D2/Wed. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will continue to intensify, supporting offshore flow across parts of southern CA. Santa Ana winds, in combination with low RH values, should allow for several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across southern CA. Offshore winds should gradually dissipate early D3/Thur as high pressure shifts eastward, ending the fire-weather risk. ...Southern California... Moderately strong high pressure in the Great Basin will drive offshore winds across parts of southern California D2/Wed. Winds will increase overnight D1/Tues, with gusts reaching 35-45 mph through the terrain-favored corridors. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as RH decreases with daytime heating. Winds are expected to diminish during the afternoon/evening, with elevated fire-weather conditions ending into early D3/Thur. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level ridging is expected to continue over the western US through D2/Wed. Surface high pressure over the Great Basin will continue to intensify, supporting offshore flow across parts of southern CA. Santa Ana winds, in combination with low RH values, should allow for several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across southern CA. Offshore winds should gradually dissipate early D3/Thur as high pressure shifts eastward, ending the fire-weather risk. ...Southern California... Moderately strong high pressure in the Great Basin will drive offshore winds across parts of southern California D2/Wed. Winds will increase overnight D1/Tues, with gusts reaching 35-45 mph through the terrain-favored corridors. Several hours of critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as RH decreases with daytime heating. Winds are expected to diminish during the afternoon/evening, with elevated fire-weather conditions ending into early D3/Thur. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the western US today and tonight. Surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin as a cold front moves eastward across the central US. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and a much drier air mass to move into portions of southern CA. The strong winds and low humidity will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... Offshore winds are expected to develop this afternoon and intensify this evening, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin. Northeast surface winds of 25-35 mph are likely through the Santa Clara River Valley and Oxnard Plain by late this evening and into early D2/Wed. The intensifying downslope winds and the arrival of drier air overnight should allow for several hours of 10-15% RH across southern California. The overlap of low RH and strong winds should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending along the Atlantic coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift east across FL and moving offshore early in the forecast period. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will deepen and pivot east, maintaining a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. through the period. A surface cold front will be located over north-central FL Thursday morning, and quickly develop south through the day. Weak instability is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula, supporting isolated thunderstorms. Poor midlevel lapse rates and very weak low and midlevel flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending along the Atlantic coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift east across FL and moving offshore early in the forecast period. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will deepen and pivot east, maintaining a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. through the period. A surface cold front will be located over north-central FL Thursday morning, and quickly develop south through the day. Weak instability is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula, supporting isolated thunderstorms. Poor midlevel lapse rates and very weak low and midlevel flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending along the Atlantic coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift east across FL and moving offshore early in the forecast period. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will deepen and pivot east, maintaining a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. through the period. A surface cold front will be located over north-central FL Thursday morning, and quickly develop south through the day. Weak instability is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula, supporting isolated thunderstorms. Poor midlevel lapse rates and very weak low and midlevel flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending along the Atlantic coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift east across FL and moving offshore early in the forecast period. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will deepen and pivot east, maintaining a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. through the period. A surface cold front will be located over north-central FL Thursday morning, and quickly develop south through the day. Weak instability is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula, supporting isolated thunderstorms. Poor midlevel lapse rates and very weak low and midlevel flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough extending along the Atlantic coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico will shift east across FL and moving offshore early in the forecast period. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough over the northern/central Plains will deepen and pivot east, maintaining a mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. through the period. A surface cold front will be located over north-central FL Thursday morning, and quickly develop south through the day. Weak instability is forecast ahead of the front across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula, supporting isolated thunderstorms. Poor midlevel lapse rates and very weak low and midlevel flow will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2024 Read more