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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist, with the most important feature being a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery from a low over southeastern MB, across western MN, eastern NE, central KS, and the TX Panhandle. The main/northern part of this trough is forecast to weaken and move across the Upper Great Lakes today. A weaker, positively tilted, basal vorticity banner will move eastward from the TX Panhandle across much of OK today, and more slowly moving eastward over northwest TX. By 00Z, this lobe should weaken and extend from the Ozarks to southern OK and the Permian Basin, then become diffuse and perhaps dissipate overnight. As that occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from eastern IA across southwestern MO, central/southwestern OK and northwest TX -- should move eastward/southeastward by 00Z to near a TOL-EVV-DYR- LIT-DAL-6R6 line. Overnight, the southern part of the front will move slowly southeastward then become quasistationary, reaching a position across northern parts of AL/MS/LA, northeast/north-central TX and the Hill Country. Episodic, widely scattered thunderstorms in bands and clusters are possible near the front, becoming isolated to widely scattered in the warm sector. A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from the Arklatex into the Mid-South, near time of peak diurnally driven buoyancy. This activity will be within the warm-advection/moisture- transport conveyor, and along/ahead of the surface cold front. A narrow corridor of prefrontal MLCAPE should range from about 2000 J/kg in northeast TX, where heating and moisture will be greatest, to around 1000 J/kg in eastern AR. However, during the surface warming/destabilization peak window, surface flow will be veering and remaining weak, due to the shift of the mid/upper trough and related large-scale lift and mass response away from the area. This will act both to shrink hodographs and weaken frontal convergence with time. Given these offsetting factors, and the increasing dominance of the unfavorable ones with time during the afternoon, severe probabilities appear too low and conditional for an outlook area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist, with the most important feature being a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery from a low over southeastern MB, across western MN, eastern NE, central KS, and the TX Panhandle. The main/northern part of this trough is forecast to weaken and move across the Upper Great Lakes today. A weaker, positively tilted, basal vorticity banner will move eastward from the TX Panhandle across much of OK today, and more slowly moving eastward over northwest TX. By 00Z, this lobe should weaken and extend from the Ozarks to southern OK and the Permian Basin, then become diffuse and perhaps dissipate overnight. As that occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from eastern IA across southwestern MO, central/southwestern OK and northwest TX -- should move eastward/southeastward by 00Z to near a TOL-EVV-DYR- LIT-DAL-6R6 line. Overnight, the southern part of the front will move slowly southeastward then become quasistationary, reaching a position across northern parts of AL/MS/LA, northeast/north-central TX and the Hill Country. Episodic, widely scattered thunderstorms in bands and clusters are possible near the front, becoming isolated to widely scattered in the warm sector. A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from the Arklatex into the Mid-South, near time of peak diurnally driven buoyancy. This activity will be within the warm-advection/moisture- transport conveyor, and along/ahead of the surface cold front. A narrow corridor of prefrontal MLCAPE should range from about 2000 J/kg in northeast TX, where heating and moisture will be greatest, to around 1000 J/kg in eastern AR. However, during the surface warming/destabilization peak window, surface flow will be veering and remaining weak, due to the shift of the mid/upper trough and related large-scale lift and mass response away from the area. This will act both to shrink hodographs and weaken frontal convergence with time. Given these offsetting factors, and the increasing dominance of the unfavorable ones with time during the afternoon, severe probabilities appear too low and conditional for an outlook area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0624 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will persist, with the most important feature being a trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery from a low over southeastern MB, across western MN, eastern NE, central KS, and the TX Panhandle. The main/northern part of this trough is forecast to weaken and move across the Upper Great Lakes today. A weaker, positively tilted, basal vorticity banner will move eastward from the TX Panhandle across much of OK today, and more slowly moving eastward over northwest TX. By 00Z, this lobe should weaken and extend from the Ozarks to southern OK and the Permian Basin, then become diffuse and perhaps dissipate overnight. As that occurs, a surface cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from eastern IA across southwestern MO, central/southwestern OK and northwest TX -- should move eastward/southeastward by 00Z to near a TOL-EVV-DYR- LIT-DAL-6R6 line. Overnight, the southern part of the front will move slowly southeastward then become quasistationary, reaching a position across northern parts of AL/MS/LA, northeast/north-central TX and the Hill Country. Episodic, widely scattered thunderstorms in bands and clusters are possible near the front, becoming isolated to widely scattered in the warm sector. A few strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon from the Arklatex into the Mid-South, near time of peak diurnally driven buoyancy. This activity will be within the warm-advection/moisture- transport conveyor, and along/ahead of the surface cold front. A narrow corridor of prefrontal MLCAPE should range from about 2000 J/kg in northeast TX, where heating and moisture will be greatest, to around 1000 J/kg in eastern AR. However, during the surface warming/destabilization peak window, surface flow will be veering and remaining weak, due to the shift of the mid/upper trough and related large-scale lift and mass response away from the area. This will act both to shrink hodographs and weaken frontal convergence with time. Given these offsetting factors, and the increasing dominance of the unfavorable ones with time during the afternoon, severe probabilities appear too low and conditional for an outlook area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/16/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same time period. Spread among guidance increases around Day 6-8/Sat-Mon, but still indicates that another upper trough will emerge over the Plains and Midwest late in the period. A surface cold front will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast on Thursday. This will clear out any lingering boundary-layer moisture and persistent offshore trajectories will mostly preclude much thunderstorm potential for most of the forecast period. The exception may be on Day 7-8/Sun-Mon as lee troughing allow for southeasterly flow to return across the western Gulf and TX, bringing modest moisture northward across southern/central TX. Nevertheless, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low throughout the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same time period. Spread among guidance increases around Day 6-8/Sat-Mon, but still indicates that another upper trough will emerge over the Plains and Midwest late in the period. A surface cold front will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast on Thursday. This will clear out any lingering boundary-layer moisture and persistent offshore trajectories will mostly preclude much thunderstorm potential for most of the forecast period. The exception may be on Day 7-8/Sun-Mon as lee troughing allow for southeasterly flow to return across the western Gulf and TX, bringing modest moisture northward across southern/central TX. Nevertheless, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low throughout the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same time period. Spread among guidance increases around Day 6-8/Sat-Mon, but still indicates that another upper trough will emerge over the Plains and Midwest late in the period. A surface cold front will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast on Thursday. This will clear out any lingering boundary-layer moisture and persistent offshore trajectories will mostly preclude much thunderstorm potential for most of the forecast period. The exception may be on Day 7-8/Sun-Mon as lee troughing allow for southeasterly flow to return across the western Gulf and TX, bringing modest moisture northward across southern/central TX. Nevertheless, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low throughout the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same time period. Spread among guidance increases around Day 6-8/Sat-Mon, but still indicates that another upper trough will emerge over the Plains and Midwest late in the period. A surface cold front will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast on Thursday. This will clear out any lingering boundary-layer moisture and persistent offshore trajectories will mostly preclude much thunderstorm potential for most of the forecast period. The exception may be on Day 7-8/Sun-Mon as lee troughing allow for southeasterly flow to return across the western Gulf and TX, bringing modest moisture northward across southern/central TX. Nevertheless, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low throughout the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same time period. Spread among guidance increases around Day 6-8/Sat-Mon, but still indicates that another upper trough will emerge over the Plains and Midwest late in the period. A surface cold front will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast on Thursday. This will clear out any lingering boundary-layer moisture and persistent offshore trajectories will mostly preclude much thunderstorm potential for most of the forecast period. The exception may be on Day 7-8/Sun-Mon as lee troughing allow for southeasterly flow to return across the western Gulf and TX, bringing modest moisture northward across southern/central TX. Nevertheless, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low throughout the forecast period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that an amplified but progressive upper level pattern will overspread the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave trough over the northern Plains early on Day 4/Thu will deepen and spread east over the eastern half of the CONUS through Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will build over the western states and spread east into the Plains during this same time period. Spread among guidance increases around Day 6-8/Sat-Mon, but still indicates that another upper trough will emerge over the Plains and Midwest late in the period. A surface cold front will move south and east into the Gulf of Mexico and offshore the Atlantic coast on Thursday. This will clear out any lingering boundary-layer moisture and persistent offshore trajectories will mostly preclude much thunderstorm potential for most of the forecast period. The exception may be on Day 7-8/Sun-Mon as lee troughing allow for southeasterly flow to return across the western Gulf and TX, bringing modest moisture northward across southern/central TX. Nevertheless, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low throughout the forecast period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited instability and modest vertical shear. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula and perhaps the GA coast. Low-level easterly flow will continue to maintain somewhat richer low-level moisture to the east of a surface inverted trough and in a separate regime from the approaching upper trough and surface front to the west. This will aid in modest destabilization through peak heating. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, and severe storms appear unlikely at this time. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited instability and modest vertical shear. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula and perhaps the GA coast. Low-level easterly flow will continue to maintain somewhat richer low-level moisture to the east of a surface inverted trough and in a separate regime from the approaching upper trough and surface front to the west. This will aid in modest destabilization through peak heating. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, and severe storms appear unlikely at this time. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited instability and modest vertical shear. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula and perhaps the GA coast. Low-level easterly flow will continue to maintain somewhat richer low-level moisture to the east of a surface inverted trough and in a separate regime from the approaching upper trough and surface front to the west. This will aid in modest destabilization through peak heating. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, and severe storms appear unlikely at this time. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited instability and modest vertical shear. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula and perhaps the GA coast. Low-level easterly flow will continue to maintain somewhat richer low-level moisture to the east of a surface inverted trough and in a separate regime from the approaching upper trough and surface front to the west. This will aid in modest destabilization through peak heating. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, and severe storms appear unlikely at this time. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited instability and modest vertical shear. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula and perhaps the GA coast. Low-level easterly flow will continue to maintain somewhat richer low-level moisture to the east of a surface inverted trough and in a separate regime from the approaching upper trough and surface front to the west. This will aid in modest destabilization through peak heating. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, and severe storms appear unlikely at this time. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas, as well as across the Florida Peninsula and Georgia coast on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will migrate across the eastern half of the CONUS on Wednesday. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest across the southeast U.S., ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from southern OH southwest to western TN and then central TX Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing along the front at the beginning of the period. This activity will likely be elevated and just to the cool side of the surface front. Instability is expected to be very weak with southeast extent into the TN and Lower MS Valley, and morning thunderstorms will likely diminish in coverage as the front moves southeast. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given limited instability and modest vertical shear. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula and perhaps the GA coast. Low-level easterly flow will continue to maintain somewhat richer low-level moisture to the east of a surface inverted trough and in a separate regime from the approaching upper trough and surface front to the west. This will aid in modest destabilization through peak heating. Weak vertical shear will limit storm organization, and severe storms appear unlikely at this time. ..Leitman.. 12/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the Western US D2/Tues. In the wake of a cold front moving across the central US the day prior, surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... As high pressure intensifies behind the cold front across the Great Basin and interior West, moderate offshore flow is expected to develop D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Santa Ana winds of 15-25 mph will overlap with low RH values of 10-20% across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for several hours. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely amid dry fuels across portions of southern CA, particularly overnight D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and minimum RH values in the absence of stronger upper-level support. The best overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected late D2/Tues into early D3/Wed morning. However, if winds trend stronger and earlier as some guidance suggests, critical highlights may be needed sooner. ..Lyons.. 12/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the Western US D2/Tues. In the wake of a cold front moving across the central US the day prior, surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... As high pressure intensifies behind the cold front across the Great Basin and interior West, moderate offshore flow is expected to develop D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Santa Ana winds of 15-25 mph will overlap with low RH values of 10-20% across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for several hours. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely amid dry fuels across portions of southern CA, particularly overnight D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and minimum RH values in the absence of stronger upper-level support. The best overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected late D2/Tues into early D3/Wed morning. However, if winds trend stronger and earlier as some guidance suggests, critical highlights may be needed sooner. ..Lyons.. 12/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the Western US D2/Tues. In the wake of a cold front moving across the central US the day prior, surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... As high pressure intensifies behind the cold front across the Great Basin and interior West, moderate offshore flow is expected to develop D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Santa Ana winds of 15-25 mph will overlap with low RH values of 10-20% across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for several hours. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely amid dry fuels across portions of southern CA, particularly overnight D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and minimum RH values in the absence of stronger upper-level support. The best overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected late D2/Tues into early D3/Wed morning. However, if winds trend stronger and earlier as some guidance suggests, critical highlights may be needed sooner. ..Lyons.. 12/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the Western US D2/Tues. In the wake of a cold front moving across the central US the day prior, surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... As high pressure intensifies behind the cold front across the Great Basin and interior West, moderate offshore flow is expected to develop D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Santa Ana winds of 15-25 mph will overlap with low RH values of 10-20% across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for several hours. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely amid dry fuels across portions of southern CA, particularly overnight D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and minimum RH values in the absence of stronger upper-level support. The best overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected late D2/Tues into early D3/Wed morning. However, if winds trend stronger and earlier as some guidance suggests, critical highlights may be needed sooner. ..Lyons.. 12/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... Quasi zonal mid-level flow is expected to quickly amplify as ridging develops over the Western US D2/Tues. In the wake of a cold front moving across the central US the day prior, surface high pressure will quickly build over the Great Basin. The high pressure will allow for moderate offshore winds and elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns over portions of southern CA. ...Southern California... As high pressure intensifies behind the cold front across the Great Basin and interior West, moderate offshore flow is expected to develop D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Santa Ana winds of 15-25 mph will overlap with low RH values of 10-20% across parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties for several hours. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely amid dry fuels across portions of southern CA, particularly overnight D2/Tues into D3/Wed. Some uncertainty remains regarding the strength of the winds and minimum RH values in the absence of stronger upper-level support. The best overlap of strong winds and low RH is expected late D2/Tues into early D3/Wed morning. However, if winds trend stronger and earlier as some guidance suggests, critical highlights may be needed sooner. ..Lyons.. 12/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more