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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024 Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0712 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 24 23:16:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z A progressive upper-air pattern will encourage multiple mid-level troughs to traverse the CONUS in succession throughout the Day 3-8 period. This pattern will supporting persistent high-pressure across the Interior West as multiple surface cyclones develop over the Plains and track eastward toward the Great Lakes/East Coast regions. Cooler conditions across the northern CONUS, and appreciable precipitation accumulations west of the Rockies and along/east of the Mississippi Valley should minimize wildfire-spread potential. Dry and windy conditions may accompany downslope flow along the High Plains in tandem with surface cyclone development most days. However, mediocre fuel receptiveness should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ..Squitieri.. 12/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A line of strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening across east-central Texas. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving eastward across the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located in central and north Texas. Ahead of the front, warming surface temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 60s F have contributed to moderate instability across much of central and east Texas. As the airmass continues to destabilize this afternoon, a line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front across east-central Texas. The instability, along with strengthening mid-level flow associated with the approaching trough will help storms to become organized. RAP forecast soundings at 00Z for College Station, Texas have MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will support a threat for supercells with isolated large hail. A marginal wind-damage threat may also develop along the more intense parts of the line. ..Broyles.. 12/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Tue Dec 24 2024/ ...Central/East TX... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough digging into the TX Panhandle region. Southerly surface winds ahead of the trough will draw 60s surface dewpoints northward into central/east TX, ahead of an approaching cold front. Visible satellite imagery shows partial sunshine in the warm sector, which will lead of steepening low-level lapse rates and further afternoon destabilization. Present indications are that scattered thunderstorms will begin to intensify along the cold front by mid-afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear for rotating updrafts will promote a risk of hail in the strongest cells. Activity will build southwestward along the front during the early evening into central TX, with a continued risk of large hail and gusty winds. Read more