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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern, while active, does not appear particularly favorable for organized robust convection today. Primary low-latitude short-wave trough, that supported strong/severe convection over southeast TX Monday night, is progressing across the lower Sabine River Valley. This feature will continue to deamplify as it moves across the lower MS Valley into the central Gulf States late tonight. Even so, some low-level response is expected ahead of this feature, with 15-20kt 850mb flow forecast to shift across southern LA into MS this afternoon. Early this morning, a fairly large complex of thunderstorms has developed ahead of the short wave from near San Antonio into central LA. This activity has evolved along/ahead of a progressive surface front that is expected to shunt the primary corridor of low-level convergence to near the upper TX Coast by sunrise Christmas morning. This will displace a plume of modest instability offshore along with any appreciable risk of organized robust storms. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. Elsewhere, strong 12hr mid-level height falls will overspread the Pacific Northwest along with high-level diffluent flow. Latest model guidance suggests the surface front will surge inland after 06z, and post-frontal destabilization is expected to support some risk for lightning during the latter part of the period with scattered weak convection. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms may develop toward the end of the period over the southern High Plains ahead of the next digging short-wave trough. Buoyancy appears too weak to warrant a severe threat. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 12/25/2024 Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0713 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 2278 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2278 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250249Z - 250415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary concern across the southern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 through at least 04Z. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows ongoing semi-discrete supercells tracking slowly east-southeastward along the pre-frontal confluence zone in central/southeast TX. The EWX VWP continues to sample around 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented mostly perpendicular to the low-level zone of ascent. This, combined with favorable buoyancy/steep midlevel lapse rates (see CRP 00Z sounding), will support the maintenance of these semi-discrete supercells. The primary risk with these storms continues to be large hail (generally up to 1.75 inches), though an isolated 2 inch hailstone cannot be ruled out. As midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent continues overspreading this activity ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough, storms may tend to grow upscale into a line, generally reducing the hail threat. Locally damaging gusts will still be possible, though increasing nocturnal static stability may lessen the threat to some extent. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 29219800 30499682 30539654 30259628 29749651 28949730 28939763 29029791 29219800 Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 40 NW LFK TO 50 SSW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285-287- 291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 712 SEVERE TSTM TX 250015Z - 250600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday night from 615 PM until Midnight CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercells will pose a threat for large hail around 1-1.75 inches in diameter this evening. Eventual upscale growth into a line may result in some threat for severe/damaging winds. A tornado or two also appears possible this evening with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles east southeast of Lufkin TX to 45 miles west southwest of College Station TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE AUS TO 25 SE GGG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2278 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-123-149-177-185-201-225-285- 287-291-313-339-347-373-407-455-471-473-477-250340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2277 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2277 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0709 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central and east/southeast Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712... Valid 250109Z - 250245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and damaging gusts continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage along a northeast/southwest-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone draped across central and east/southeast TX this evening. A cold front is also approaching from the northwest, and is beginning to catch up to the northern portion of the confluence zone. Here, congealing outflow is favoring localized upscale growth, and damaging winds will be the primary concern. The one exception is a persistent semi-discrete supercell ahead of the line which will pose a risk of large hail (generally up to 1.5 inches) in the near term. Farther south, regional VWP data indicates 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly 0-6 km shear, oriented oblique to the pre-frontal confluence zone. Given this shear orientation and increased separation from the approaching cold front, discrete/semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk of large hail (some up to 1.75 inches), with damaging winds also possible. With time, increasing storm development will favor upscale growth, and the severe-wind risk will become the main threat before convection gets undercut by the front. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30879678 31699602 31909576 32079531 32059483 31829466 30089623 29649707 29709751 29879780 30359748 30879678 Read more

WW 0712 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2277 ..WEINMAN..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-005-015-021-041-051-055-073-089-149-161-185-201-225-287- 289-291-293-313-331-339-347-373-395-401-407-453-455-471-473-477- 491-250240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ANGELINA AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL CHEROKEE COLORADO FAYETTE FREESTONE GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LEE LEON LIBERTY LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY NACOGDOCHES POLK ROBERTSON RUSK SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more