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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong west-southwesterly deep-layer flow within the base of a midlevel shortwave trough will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. As a result, breezy westerly surface winds will develop across southern NM into the TX Trans-Pecos region -- where 20-25 percent RH is expected. However, the overlap of dry and windy conditions should remain too localized for an appreciable fire-weather risk. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0713 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 713 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..12/25/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 713 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-015-025-039-057-071-089-123-157-167-175-201-239-255-285- 291-321-339-391-469-473-481-250840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS AUSTIN BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD HARRIS JACKSON KARNES LAVACA LIBERTY MATAGORDA MONTGOMERY REFUGIO VICTORIA WALLER WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-335-350-355-250840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday across central/east Texas into western Louisiana and possibly southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. ...Central/East Texas to ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is expected to transition east-northeastward across Texas toward the Ozarks Thursday and Thursday night. In response, modest surface cyclogenesis should occur across west into North Texas toward the ArkLaTex/Ozarks, with an increasingly moist airmass becoming established across much of east/southeast Texas into Louisiana and the ArkLaTex. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing and increasing Thursday morning across north Texas into southern Oklahoma. These storms and the timing/location thereof will be an influential factor for the main corridor of severe-weather potential into the afternoon, limiting the northern extent of destabilization where clouds/convection persist. Thinking remains that a surface-based severe risk should increase by Thursday midday/early afternoon initially across east-central/possibly North Texas, perhaps generally around I-35, but probably more so toward the I-45 corridor. Lower/some middle 60s F warm-sector dewpoints are expected across south-central to east/southeast Texas into Louisiana, contributing to upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE across east/southeast Texas by afternoon, with more minimal/uncertain destabilization northward into southeast Oklahoma and ArkLaTex, where at least some severe risk could still occur. Strong deep-layer/low-level shear, highlighted by 45-55 kt effective shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, will support a mixed mode of northeastward-moving bowing segments and semi-discrete/embedded supercells. Isolated large hail will initially be possible, with a damaging wind risk increasing during the afternoon along with the potential for a few tornadoes, potentially including the possibility of a strong tornado (EF2+). Convective intensity and overall severe potential will likely tend to wane progressively into late evening/overnight, but at least a low-end/isolated severe risk will probably persist into parts of Louisiana and possibly as far east as the ArkLaMiss vicinity overnight. ..Guyer.. 12/25/2024 Read more