Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with a threat for tornadoes, wind damage and hail, will be possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas. More isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley. ...Southern Atlantic Coastal States... A large-scale mid-level trough will move northeastward through the Tennessee Valley and central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances eastward into the southern Appalachian Mountains and eastern Gulf Coast states. At the start of the period, a line of strong thunderstorms will be ongoing from northwestern Georgia into southeast Alabama. This line could have an isolated wind-damage potential. This morning, surface temperatures will warm ahead of the line allowing for weak destabilization across much of eastern Georgia and the Carolinas. The right entrance region of the mid-level jet, associated with strong large-scale ascent, will pass over this area in conjunction with a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. RAP forecast soundings near the jet axis have steep low-level lapse rates and 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground. For this reason, the more organized parts of the line should be able to easily mix the stronger winds to the surface, and result in severe wind gusts with the more intense parts of the line. Forecast soundings near the jet axis also have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat as well. Tornadoes will be most likely with rotating storms that develop within the line in areas that destabilize the most. The threat is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon as the line moves into central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... A mid-level large-scale trough and an associated surface low will move northeastward into the Ohio Valley today. An 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet will accompany the trough, spreading strong large-scale ascent across the region. Immediately ahead of the system, some surface heating will take place today across the Virginias and Ohio, where an axis of weak instability is expected to develop. RAP forecast soundings by early afternoon near the instability axis increase MLCAPE to around 400 J/kg. This should enable low-topped thunderstorms to develop ahead of the trough. Steep low-level lapse rates combined with 40 to 50 knots of flow just above the ground could be enough for marginally severe gusts. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to be near 300 m2/s2 which could also support a marginal tornado threat. The isolated severe threat is expected to be concentrated in the late morning and early afternoon as the mid-level jet moves across the region. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/29/2024 Read more

MD 2311 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 721... FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2311 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Louisiana to southern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 721... Valid 290408Z - 290545Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 721 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds, along with some tornado risk, continues. DISCUSSION...Southern flank of an elongated MCS is advancing slowly east across western portions of ww721. Gusty winds are likely occurring along the leading squall line, but this activity is more fragmented than areas farther north, and most reports have been sub-severe. Even so, warm advection profiles are more than adequately sheared for maintaining organized convection, and even supercells. Some risk for tornadoes continues, especially with pre-squall line supercells. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 29349097 31948850 31948610 29338865 29349097 Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE MEI TO 35 NW SEM TO 15 NNE TCL TO 50 NW BHM TO 20 W HSV TO 30 N MSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310 ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-007-009-011-015-017-019-021-027-029-037-043-047-049- 051-055-071-073-081-083-085-087-089-095-101-103-105-109-111-113- 115-117-121-123-127-290640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BIBB BLOUNT BULLOCK CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH JACKSON JEFFERSON LEE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MACON MADISON MARSHALL MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA WALKER TNC051-103-127-290640- Read more

MD 2310 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 722... FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...Northern/Central Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 722... Valid 290343Z - 290515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 722 continues. SUMMARY...Severe squall line will propagate across Alabama late this evening. DISCUSSION...Severe QLCS is propagating steadily east, in response to a strongly dynamic trough that is ejecting across the lower MS Valley. This linear MCS has surged 100-150mi ahead of the synoptic front, with the leading edge of the squall line now roughly extending along the AL/MS border. Intense LLJ has aided some northward destabilization, with lower 60s surface dew points noted to near the TN/AL border. Damaging winds can be expected with this MCS, along with some risk for tornadoes, especially with embedded supercells. This line is expected to advance across the remainder of ww722 into eastern AL after 07z. ..Darrow.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32028818 34998835 35008659 32048649 32028818 Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW HUM TO 30 SSE MSY TO 25 SSW GPT TO 20 NW MOB TO 35 NW GZH TO 10 SW SEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311 ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-035-039-041-053-097-099-290640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE FLC033-091-113-290640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC075-290640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2310 ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-021-033-037-043-047-051-057-059-063-065-073-075- 077-079-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-121-125- 127-133-290540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MARENGO MARION MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS PIKE ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2311 ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-290540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-290540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-109-290540- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0722 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 722 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 722 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-021-033-037-043-047-051-057-059-063-065-073-075- 077-079-083-085-091-093-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-121-125- 127-133-290440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT CHILTON COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS ELMORE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MARENGO MARION MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS PIKE ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON MSC013-017-057-081-095-115-117-141-290440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN CHICKASAW ITAWAMBA Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-290440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-290440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-290440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD Read more

MD 2309 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720...721... FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...southern Mississippi...and southern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 720...721... Valid 290139Z - 290245Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720, 721 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for damaging winds and tornadoes continue within WW720 and WW721. DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms with embedded supercell structures continues to move eastward across southern Louisiana/Mississippi. Within the line, mesovortex structures continue to be observed on radar. Ahead of this line, semi-discrete cells continue to move northward and quickly merge with the line. Given this mixed mode, the threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will continue for the next few hours. Ahead of this line near the marine front draped across southern Alabama, a supercell has moved inland and continues to exhibit mid-level rotation. This cell will eventually move northward into more stable air north of the marine boundary but may continue to pose risk for a tornado as it moves within mid to upper 60s dew point air with deep layer shear around 35-45 kts. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29769250 30439153 31618979 31518798 31358732 30758687 30248687 29648731 29128880 29259019 29429104 29769250 Read more

WW 0721 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-053-097-099-129-131-290340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW ESCAMBIA MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-290340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-290340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASSUMPTION JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD Read more