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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Tomorrow's fire weather forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions needed at this time. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR AND NORTHWESTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2300 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern AR and northwestern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281715Z - 281815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large (some 2+ in) hail and damaging gusts may persist for a few hours this morning and early this afternoon. A more substantial severe threat is expected later today. DISCUSSION...As of 1710 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a cluster of strong to severe storms (including a more dominant supercell) ongoing across parts of far eastern AR. Likely elevated above the surface north of a well-defined baroclinic zone, these storms have produced a few reports of large hail over the past 2 hours. Keeping with general storm motion to the east/northeast at 30-35 kt, these storms should cross the MS river into northwestern MS in the next hour. The air mass here is weakly unstable (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg), but also strongly sheared, which should continue to support at least an isolated risk for severe hail and some damaging gust potential for a few more hours. A more substantial severe risk is expected to evolve later this afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent and linear storms approach from the west/southwest. Recent HRRR guidance and radar trends over the ArkLaTex suggests a larger QLCS/bowing line segment may approach and merge with this convection as the air mass across MS continues to destabilize. This would favor a greater severe risk, particularly for damaging gusts and tornadoes this afternoon/evening. Thus, while there remains an isolated severe risk over the next couple of hours, a WW is not expected until later this afternoon. ..Lyons/Hart.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34499101 33759197 33569202 33409187 33269157 33129105 33259030 33878936 34368952 34698987 34719073 34499101 Read more

MD 2299 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 717...718... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2299 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northern Louisiana into far southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717...718... Valid 281624Z - 281800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717, 718 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across the remainder of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 717 and Tornado Watch 718. In the near term, the greatest severe threat will be with a line of storms approaching from far northeast TX. The severe threat may increase across southeast AR over the next few hours. All severe hazards are possible. DISCUSSION...A QLCS is rapidly translating eastward amid a mainly elevated airmass in place. However, the southernmost portion of this QLCS is poised to interact with the warm front and associated surface-based airmass (characterized by upper 60s F surface dewpoints and 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE). Damaging gusts are the main threat with this QLCS in the immediate time frame. However, any interaction with the warm front may support in an increase in isolated tornado potential over the next couple of hours, especially over far northern LA. Latest radar data also shows an increase in thunderstorm intensity over far southeast AR, where the QLCS will also move toward by afternoon. As such, a WW issuance may eventually be needed farther east/northeast of ongoing severe WWs 717-718. All severe hazards would be possible. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 33049468 33759289 33979186 33689121 33229115 32769133 32529211 32469296 32409378 32399432 32419459 33049468 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Vicinity... A negative-tilt mid/upper trough will progress quickly northeast from the MS/TN Valley to the lower Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. A strong 70-90 kt midlevel jet over the TN/OH Valley early in the period will weaken somewhat as the system lifts northeast. Nevertheless, abundant vertical shear will overspread the region through the daytime and evening hours. A mixed convective mode is expected, especially with southward extent into SC/GA and northern FL with a QLCS and semi-discrete cells possible. With northward extent and where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, a narrow band of convection will move across portions of WV/VA/NC. Stronger instability will be focused to the south, from SC into north FL, where 60s F dewpoints will allow for 500-1200 J/kg MLCAPE. Weaker boundary-layer moisture and cooler temperatures with northward extent will limit surface-based instability. Nevertheless, fast moving linear convection will still pose a risk for sporadic strong to severe wind gusts from NC into VA/WV. Where stronger instability and potential for semi-discrete cells are forecast from SC southward, a greater risk for damaging gusts, a few tornadoes and marginally severe hail will exist. ...Ohio Valley... A synoptically favorable setup for cold-core convection will overspread the region during the afternoon as a surface low lifts northeast near the IN/OH border. A narrow corridor of mid-50s F dewpoints will nose into central OH ahead of the low and attendant surface front. Modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates associated with the ejecting upper trough will support minor destabilization (generally less than 250 J/kg MUCAPE) amid modest vertical shear. Thermodynamic profiles indicate low-topped convection is possible, though CAMs guidance is very anemic in the depiction of this convection given poor thermodynamics. Nevertheless, at least a conditional risk, mainly for strong gusts, will exist during the early to mid afternoon. ..Leitman.. 12/28/2024 Read more