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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, mid-level flow is west to west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. At the surface, pressure is relatively high over much of the nation. The resultant dry and cool conditions will make thunderstorms unlikely across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, mid-level flow is west to west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. At the surface, pressure is relatively high over much of the nation. The resultant dry and cool conditions will make thunderstorms unlikely across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... On water vapor imagery, mid-level flow is west to west-northwesterly across much of the U.S. At the surface, pressure is relatively high over much of the nation. The resultant dry and cool conditions will make thunderstorms unlikely across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 02/03/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 2 22:33:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 2 22:33:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more