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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude flow aloft is forecast to persist across the U.S. Wednesday, while a short-wave trough initially over the Colorado vicinity progresses east-northeastward into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area. At the surface, a very weak surface wave -- along the persistent west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward from the southern Plains across the Tennessee Valley area -- is forecast to move eastward along the boundary with time. Some minor northward wobble of the boundary may occur ahead of the low, but little overall frontal progression is expected through the period. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley/central Appalachians... As the aforementioned, weak surface wave moves east-northeastward, ahead of the associated upper disturbance, low-level southerly flow across the eastern U.S. will result in isentropic ascent of higher theta-e air atop the persistent surface baroclinic zone. As DPVA spreads eastward, the increase in quasigeostropic ascent combined with weak/elevated destabilization will result in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Most of the convection is expected to evolve during the second half of the period, spreading into the central Appalachians overnight. At this time, it appears that weak lapse rates will offset the increase in low-level theta-e advection, resulting in only minimal elevated CAPE atop the strongly stable boundary layer. Though shear will be plenty sufficient to otherwise support organized storms, the lack likelihood for any surface-based risk, and insufficient elevated instability to support large hail, suggests that severe risk will be minimal through the period. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected across the U.S. Wednesday. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude flow aloft is forecast to persist across the U.S. Wednesday, while a short-wave trough initially over the Colorado vicinity progresses east-northeastward into/across the Midwest/Ohio Valley area. At the surface, a very weak surface wave -- along the persistent west-to-east baroclinic zone extending eastward from the southern Plains across the Tennessee Valley area -- is forecast to move eastward along the boundary with time. Some minor northward wobble of the boundary may occur ahead of the low, but little overall frontal progression is expected through the period. ...Midwest/Ohio Valley/central Appalachians... As the aforementioned, weak surface wave moves east-northeastward, ahead of the associated upper disturbance, low-level southerly flow across the eastern U.S. will result in isentropic ascent of higher theta-e air atop the persistent surface baroclinic zone. As DPVA spreads eastward, the increase in quasigeostropic ascent combined with weak/elevated destabilization will result in development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Most of the convection is expected to evolve during the second half of the period, spreading into the central Appalachians overnight. At this time, it appears that weak lapse rates will offset the increase in low-level theta-e advection, resulting in only minimal elevated CAPE atop the strongly stable boundary layer. Though shear will be plenty sufficient to otherwise support organized storms, the lack likelihood for any surface-based risk, and insufficient elevated instability to support large hail, suggests that severe risk will be minimal through the period. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Low-amplitude flow aloft will prevail across the U.S. Tuesday, with a weak western ridge/central trough/eastern ridge configuration expected to prevail. Within the broader flow field, a short-wave trough is forecast to shift east-northeastward out of California and the Great Basin/Four Corners states through the period. At the surface, a baroclinic zone extending from the southern Plains to the Carolinas/Virginia will make slow southward progress across the southeastern states, while remaining more quasistationary over the southern Plains. Showers are forecast to develop north of the boundary later in the period -- particularly across the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, as quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent increases. However, not more than a few flashes of lightning are anticipated at this time, prior to 05/12Z. A few flashes may also occur across portions of the West, in tandem with the advance of the upper short-wave feature, but coverage should remain well below 10% -- thus negating any need for a thunder area. ..Goss.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms potential is low over much of the US today and tonight. ...Synopsis... At the start of the period, largely zonal mid-level flow is expected across the CONUS. This should largely continue, but slight amplification of the flow is expected over the central US as low-amplitude ridging develops and a shortwave trough passes over the Great lakes and Northeast. A broad upper cyclone is also expected to intensify over the West Coast supporting stronger inland moisture transport across northern CA. At the surface, the ridging will support strengthening high pressure over the northern half of the US. A cold front will slowly move through the OH valley before stalling over the central US. Because of this, little if any moisture/buoyancy is expected over the CONUS outside of southern TX and parts of FL. However, strong capping and limited forcing for ascent should limit thunderstorm potential below 10%. Similarly, increasing moisture advection across CA and the West could support some weak elevated buoyancy. However, poor lapse rates suggest overall thunderstorm chances are low. ..Lyons.. 02/03/2025 Read more