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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Although the northeastern Pacific blocking high may undergo some suppression during this period, models indicate that downstream mid-level troughing will be maintained near/offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. However, it does appear that one substantive short wave perturbation emerging from this regime will continue inland across the northern Rockies, and suppress large-scale downstream ridging initially across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes region. This is likely to be preceded by a less prominent perturbation (of southern mid-latitude Pacific origin), migrating across the central Great Plains through southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity by 12Z Thursday, around the northern periphery of low-amplitude large-scale ridging in lower latitudes. Beneath this regime, seasonably cold air associated with an ongoing cold intrusion may still be entrenched as far south as portions of the central into southern Great Plains, middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic at the outset of the period, before undergoing further erosion from southwest to northeast Wednesday through Wednesday night. Along the associated initially stalled sharp surface frontal zone, models indicate that forcing associated with the lead short wave impulse will support a deepening wave somewhere across the Ozark Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Due to the differing handling of the ongoing intrusion of arctic air, there remains sizable model spread and uncertainty concerning this frontal wave, and the degree of boundary-layer modification within its evolving warm sector. Even weak boundary-layer destabilization occurring in relatively close proximity to this wave probably will be accompanied by at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the likelihood of strong shear. However, with latest NAM forecast soundings generally maintaining a notable surface-based stable layer and modest mid-level lapse rates, where forcing for ascent is likely to aid convective development, the risk for severe weather still appears negligible through this period. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast outlined below remains on track with no changes needed. Localized fire weather concerns remain possible across the southern High Plains into western NM and possible as far west as eastern AZ to the north of the Mogollon Rim. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest the coverage of elevated fire weather conditions will remain patchy/scattered with inconsistent overlap of dry fuels. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... As ridging aloft continues to intensify over the central US, so to will broad troughing over much of the West. Several embedded perturbations will cross the southern Rockies deepening a lee low over the southern High Plains and a second low over the Great Basin. This could support periods of stronger surface winds (15-25 mph) over portions of NM and far west TX. Warm temperatures and westerly winds appear likely to support low humidity and drying of area fuels, west of returning surface moisture over the southern Plains. Some fire-weather risk is possible over central NM and far west TX where the stronger winds could interact with areas of more receptive fuels. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible and further drying of short-hour fuels is also expected. However, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected given the relatively minor overlap of sustained winds, low humidity and receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more