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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, and near Oregon coastal areas, late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Otherwise, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking high, centered to the southeast of the Aleutians, models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will be maintained across and offshore of the Pacific Northwest, though an embedded low may reform to the south-southwest of Vancouver Island. To the east of this regime, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to slowly build across the northern U.S. Great Plains and adjacent Canadian Prairies into the Great Lakes region, while a short wave perturbation digs within northwest flow to its northeast and east. In a separate branch of westerlies, emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, a notable short wave perturbation is forecast to accelerate inland across the California coast and Great Basin/Rockies by 12Z Wednesday, ahead of an inland advancing perturbation within the more prominent cyclonic regime to the north. In lower-levels, it appears that surface troughing will slowly begin to deepen to the immediate lee of the Rockies, as the center of an expansive cold surface ridge shifts from the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains into the Great Lakes, beneath the more strongly confluent mid-level flow. The shallow leading edge of the seasonably cold air mass may stall across parts of the southern Great Plains into Ohio Valley, while advancing offshore of the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. At the same time, a southerly return flow of moisture is forecast to develop from parts of the western Gulf Basin into the southern U.S. Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. ...California/Sierra Nevada... In advance of the perturbation emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, low/mid-level moistening, differential thermal advection and strong lift, aided by a strengthening upslope flow component, may contribute to weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of convection capable of producing lightning by early Tuesday evening, if not earlier. ...Oregon coastal areas... Models indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric cooling will lead to increasing boundary-layer destabilization near coastal areas through the period. As this occurs, some convection, within a broader area of continuing convective development, may deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support occasional lightning. ...Ozark Plateau/Mid South... Beneath low-amplitude large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Great Plains through the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast, it appears that low-level moistening and warming will contribute to increasing potential instability. Models indicate that this will generally remain capped by a relatively warm/dry layer further aloft. However, it is possible that an area of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may become a focus for deepening elevated convective development by late Tuesday night, somewhere across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity. This may include isolated weak thunderstorm development, but the extent of this potential, and exactly where, remain uncertain, resulting in the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities below 10 percent. ..Kerr.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. Fast zonal flow is present today across the northern 2/3rds of the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions precluding organized thunderstorm activity throughout the period. A warm and moist air mass across south FL, coupled with strong daytime heating, will result in a few showers and perhaps a lightning flash. Strong onshore flow and cold mid-level temperatures could also result in a lightning flash along the coast of WA/OR. In both places, very weak thermodynamic parameters suggest the threat is below 10%. ..Hart/Dean.. 02/03/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of western/central NV. Recent surface observations show leeward winds off the central Sierra Nevada strengthening to 15-25 mph with RH values falling into the upper single digits and teens due to downslope warming/drying. These conditions are expected to become more widespread through the afternoon as winds increase to 20-30 mph across much of central NV. Critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but recent fuel guidance suggests fuels are generally not supportive of rapid fire spread. For this reason, a Critical risk delineation was withheld, but the Elevated risk area denotes the most probable corridor of critical wind/RH conditions. See the previous discussion below for details pertaining to the fire weather potential across the remainder of the country. ..Moore.. 02/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CST Mon Feb 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... Zonal flow will largely continue across the US. The upper-level flow will gradually amplify as short-wave ridging develops over the central US. Flow aloft will intensify as broad troughing builds over the Southwest. Gusty winds and dry conditions will be possible near a lee trough across the High Plains and over the northern Great Basin supporting some localized fire-weather potential. However, the large-scale overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels appears limited. Further drying of short-hour fuels could support some localized fire-weather risk across parts of eastern NM and west TX, but more widespread fire-weather concerns are not currently expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more