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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An upper-level jet will help flatten the upper-level ridge over the southern US mid-week. A cold front will push down the Plains Day 4/Wednesday night into Day 5/Thursday night and likely stall somewhere just south of the Red River in Texas. Strong flow aloft will continue over the central Plains into the weekend, but an upper-level trough moving into the West will likely help shift the upper-level jet farther south over portions of the Southwest and southern High Plains Day 6/Friday - Day 8/Sunday. Much of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains are expected to receive little to no precipitation through the outlook period. ...Southern High Plains/Southwest... Dry/windy conditions remain likely across portions of the southern High Plains on Day 4/Wednesday with 40% probabilities of critical conditions maintained. Dry/breezy conditions may continue on Day 5/Thursday in portions of eastern New Mexico and west Texas, but stronger flow aloft is forecast to arrive on Day 6/Friday. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the arrival timing of the stronger winds aloft both on what day and if it will coincide with daytime heating. Additional uncertainty exists regarding the frontal position on the southern Plains. If current forecast guidance trends hold, 40% probabilities will be needed for portions of New Mexico into west Texas for at least one day late this week into the weekend. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ Stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states, precluding thunderstorms today and tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0117 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low overall on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a broad region of height falls will occur across the West, with a southern-stream wave moving across the Four Corners states and a strong shortwave trough approaching the Pacific Northwest late. Meanwhile, the southern periphery of an eastern Canada trough will remain over the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Midwest, with a stalled front roughly from Ok into TN. South of this front, southerly winds will maintain low to mid 60s F dewpoints over eastern TX and into LA and southern AR. This air mass will remain capped with little to no instability present. Otherwise, while a plume of midlevel moisture will result in substantial precipitation from parts of central CA into ID, little if any elevated instability is forecast. ..Jewell.. 02/02/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CST Sun Feb 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of west-central Nevada ahead of a cold front and under strong flow aloft. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 02/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Sun Feb 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... Predominately zonal mid-level flow will persist over much of the CONUS D2/Monday. Low-amplitude ridging within the zonal flow should slowly build over the central Plains supporting relatively quiescent weather. While occasional gusty surface winds are expected near a lee trough across the High Plains, overall fire-weather conditions appear limited. ...Southern Plains... Occasional dry and breezy conditions will continue across the southern Plains through Day2/Monday. A lee low and cold front over west TX could support occasional gusts to 15 mph. Dry conditions should also persist, though stronger southerly flow should increase humidity gradually. Additional drying of fuels is likely with little to no precipitation expected. This could support localized fire-weather potential across the southern High Plains, but widespread concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more