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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more