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Some cattle in Belmont County have left their pastures in search of additional feed. The area remained in drought, so pond levels were lower than usual. Hay is expensive, so farmers were rationing it and feeding it in smaller quantities, spurring some cattle to wander hoping to find a better meal elsewhere. Cows have been seen roaming along Route 800 and Route 147 in New Athens. Drivers would be wise to be cautious of the bovines when driving. WTRF (Wheeling, W.V.), Feb 10, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... 850mb flow is beginning to increase across northern TX into southeast OK, partially in response to a weak southern stream short-wave trough that is approaching this region. Latest model guidance suggests LLJ will strengthen into the late evening hours then veer into the Arklatex by 11/12z. The strongest corridor of low-level warm advection is currently noted from central OK into the Ozarks. This appears to be the primary reason for ongoing elevated convection, with scattered updrafts penetrating levels that are favorable for lightning. 00z sounding from OUN supports this with 450 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel around 2km AGL. With time, as temperatures cool aloft, lapse rates should adjust and permit convection to develop southwest across north-central TX into the Edwards Plateau. Buoyancy appears inadequate for severe hail. ..Darrow.. 02/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 10 22:13:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 10 22:13:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more