Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more