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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough will be located over the Plains/central U.S. Wednesday. A shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough will rotated from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, resulting in a large swath of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region. At the surface, low pressure will develop near the Sabine River during the morning, and deepen as the low lifts northeast through the period. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. While widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will limit stronger destabilization, and adds to uncertainty for this event, the overall large-scale pattern suggests some severe thunderstorm potential is likely from extreme southeast TX into MS/AL Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will approach the I-20 corridor by afternoon as the surface low develop northeast into TN/KY by 00z. Additionally, strong shear will overspread the region for much of the period (decreasing from west to east with time). Large-scale ascent will be somewhat offset to the north of the better low-level moisture, but a glancing influence coupled with the sharpening of the southeast-advancing cold front will be sufficient to sustain convection in a strong warm advection regime. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, typical of supercell/QLCS environments and aided by a 45-60 kt low-level jet. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor given limited heating, and midlevel lapse rates also are expected to remain modest. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is evident in most forecast guidance, though surface-based instability is likely to remain muted. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface boundary, convection is likely to mostly be to the cool side of the boundary. However, given strength of shear and modest instability, some strong/severe wind potential is possible with organized line segments. While low-level lapse rates and instability are expected to remain poor, limiting overall tornado potential, a couple of mesovortex spin-ups within linear convection may still be possible given very favorable shear environment and any mesoscale pockets of greater instability. Currently, it is uncertain if convection will be able to develop ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Given the somewhat northward offset of stronger ascent and orientation of shear vectors to the initiating boundary, it appears low probability at this time that convection will be able to sufficiently deepen within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, if this occurs, a conditional risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes with supercells will exist. The severe risk should gradually lessen overnight with north and east extent as instability decreases and large-scale ascent continues to lift to the northeast of the region. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough will be located over the Plains/central U.S. Wednesday. A shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough will rotated from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, resulting in a large swath of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region. At the surface, low pressure will develop near the Sabine River during the morning, and deepen as the low lifts northeast through the period. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. While widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will limit stronger destabilization, and adds to uncertainty for this event, the overall large-scale pattern suggests some severe thunderstorm potential is likely from extreme southeast TX into MS/AL Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will approach the I-20 corridor by afternoon as the surface low develop northeast into TN/KY by 00z. Additionally, strong shear will overspread the region for much of the period (decreasing from west to east with time). Large-scale ascent will be somewhat offset to the north of the better low-level moisture, but a glancing influence coupled with the sharpening of the southeast-advancing cold front will be sufficient to sustain convection in a strong warm advection regime. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, typical of supercell/QLCS environments and aided by a 45-60 kt low-level jet. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor given limited heating, and midlevel lapse rates also are expected to remain modest. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is evident in most forecast guidance, though surface-based instability is likely to remain muted. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface boundary, convection is likely to mostly be to the cool side of the boundary. However, given strength of shear and modest instability, some strong/severe wind potential is possible with organized line segments. While low-level lapse rates and instability are expected to remain poor, limiting overall tornado potential, a couple of mesovortex spin-ups within linear convection may still be possible given very favorable shear environment and any mesoscale pockets of greater instability. Currently, it is uncertain if convection will be able to develop ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Given the somewhat northward offset of stronger ascent and orientation of shear vectors to the initiating boundary, it appears low probability at this time that convection will be able to sufficiently deepen within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, if this occurs, a conditional risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes with supercells will exist. The severe risk should gradually lessen overnight with north and east extent as instability decreases and large-scale ascent continues to lift to the northeast of the region. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough will be located over the Plains/central U.S. Wednesday. A shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough will rotated from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, resulting in a large swath of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region. At the surface, low pressure will develop near the Sabine River during the morning, and deepen as the low lifts northeast through the period. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. While widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will limit stronger destabilization, and adds to uncertainty for this event, the overall large-scale pattern suggests some severe thunderstorm potential is likely from extreme southeast TX into MS/AL Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will approach the I-20 corridor by afternoon as the surface low develop northeast into TN/KY by 00z. Additionally, strong shear will overspread the region for much of the period (decreasing from west to east with time). Large-scale ascent will be somewhat offset to the north of the better low-level moisture, but a glancing influence coupled with the sharpening of the southeast-advancing cold front will be sufficient to sustain convection in a strong warm advection regime. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, typical of supercell/QLCS environments and aided by a 45-60 kt low-level jet. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor given limited heating, and midlevel lapse rates also are expected to remain modest. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is evident in most forecast guidance, though surface-based instability is likely to remain muted. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface boundary, convection is likely to mostly be to the cool side of the boundary. However, given strength of shear and modest instability, some strong/severe wind potential is possible with organized line segments. While low-level lapse rates and instability are expected to remain poor, limiting overall tornado potential, a couple of mesovortex spin-ups within linear convection may still be possible given very favorable shear environment and any mesoscale pockets of greater instability. Currently, it is uncertain if convection will be able to develop ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Given the somewhat northward offset of stronger ascent and orientation of shear vectors to the initiating boundary, it appears low probability at this time that convection will be able to sufficiently deepen within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, if this occurs, a conditional risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes with supercells will exist. The severe risk should gradually lessen overnight with north and east extent as instability decreases and large-scale ascent continues to lift to the northeast of the region. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough will be located over the Plains/central U.S. Wednesday. A shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough will rotated from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, resulting in a large swath of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region. At the surface, low pressure will develop near the Sabine River during the morning, and deepen as the low lifts northeast through the period. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. While widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will limit stronger destabilization, and adds to uncertainty for this event, the overall large-scale pattern suggests some severe thunderstorm potential is likely from extreme southeast TX into MS/AL Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will approach the I-20 corridor by afternoon as the surface low develop northeast into TN/KY by 00z. Additionally, strong shear will overspread the region for much of the period (decreasing from west to east with time). Large-scale ascent will be somewhat offset to the north of the better low-level moisture, but a glancing influence coupled with the sharpening of the southeast-advancing cold front will be sufficient to sustain convection in a strong warm advection regime. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, typical of supercell/QLCS environments and aided by a 45-60 kt low-level jet. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor given limited heating, and midlevel lapse rates also are expected to remain modest. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is evident in most forecast guidance, though surface-based instability is likely to remain muted. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface boundary, convection is likely to mostly be to the cool side of the boundary. However, given strength of shear and modest instability, some strong/severe wind potential is possible with organized line segments. While low-level lapse rates and instability are expected to remain poor, limiting overall tornado potential, a couple of mesovortex spin-ups within linear convection may still be possible given very favorable shear environment and any mesoscale pockets of greater instability. Currently, it is uncertain if convection will be able to develop ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Given the somewhat northward offset of stronger ascent and orientation of shear vectors to the initiating boundary, it appears low probability at this time that convection will be able to sufficiently deepen within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, if this occurs, a conditional risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes with supercells will exist. The severe risk should gradually lessen overnight with north and east extent as instability decreases and large-scale ascent continues to lift to the northeast of the region. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more