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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z A progressive upper pattern is in store for the upcoming week into next weekend, with multiple surface cyclones poised to develop over the Plains states and eject eastward in tandem with supporting mid-level troughs. Surface cyclone development is expected in the southern Plains with the approach of the first mid-level trough, supporting dry downslope flow across far western Texas Day 3 (Wednesday). 25 mph sustained westerly surface winds and 15 percent RH will overspread drying fuels over the Trans Pecos region, necessitating the maintenance of 70 percent Critical probabilities. The passage of another mid-level trough, surface low, and accompanying downslope flow, is likely on Day 6 (Saturday), where dry and windy conditions across far western Texas warrants 40 percent Critical probabilities. Some precipitation accumulations are possible just east of the Trans Pecos on Wednesday, which may influence the eastern extent of fire weather highlights for both Days 3 and 6 in future outlooks. After Saturday, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are likely before another mid-level trough approaches beyond the extended outlook time frame. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains largely unchanged with minor adjustments. Broad-scale ascent/warm air advection is increasing across portions of the southern Plains, with elevated showers ongoing within a weakly unstable air mass. Gradual intensification of these showers into widely scattered thunderstorms is likely over the southern Plains and ArkLaTex tonight. The thunder area was expanded slightly farther east to better cover higher thunder potential from recent guidance. Otherwise, the severe risk remains low. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough will be located over the Plains/central U.S. Wednesday. A shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough will rotated from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, resulting in a large swath of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region. At the surface, low pressure will develop near the Sabine River during the morning, and deepen as the low lifts northeast through the period. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. While widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will limit stronger destabilization, and adds to uncertainty for this event, the overall large-scale pattern suggests some severe thunderstorm potential is likely from extreme southeast TX into MS/AL Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will approach the I-20 corridor by afternoon as the surface low develop northeast into TN/KY by 00z. Additionally, strong shear will overspread the region for much of the period (decreasing from west to east with time). Large-scale ascent will be somewhat offset to the north of the better low-level moisture, but a glancing influence coupled with the sharpening of the southeast-advancing cold front will be sufficient to sustain convection in a strong warm advection regime. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, typical of supercell/QLCS environments and aided by a 45-60 kt low-level jet. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor given limited heating, and midlevel lapse rates also are expected to remain modest. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is evident in most forecast guidance, though surface-based instability is likely to remain muted. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface boundary, convection is likely to mostly be to the cool side of the boundary. However, given strength of shear and modest instability, some strong/severe wind potential is possible with organized line segments. While low-level lapse rates and instability are expected to remain poor, limiting overall tornado potential, a couple of mesovortex spin-ups within linear convection may still be possible given very favorable shear environment and any mesoscale pockets of greater instability. Currently, it is uncertain if convection will be able to develop ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Given the somewhat northward offset of stronger ascent and orientation of shear vectors to the initiating boundary, it appears low probability at this time that convection will be able to sufficiently deepen within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, if this occurs, a conditional risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes with supercells will exist. The severe risk should gradually lessen overnight with north and east extent as instability decreases and large-scale ascent continues to lift to the northeast of the region. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough will be located over the Plains/central U.S. Wednesday. A shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough will rotated from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, resulting in a large swath of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region. At the surface, low pressure will develop near the Sabine River during the morning, and deepen as the low lifts northeast through the period. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. While widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will limit stronger destabilization, and adds to uncertainty for this event, the overall large-scale pattern suggests some severe thunderstorm potential is likely from extreme southeast TX into MS/AL Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will approach the I-20 corridor by afternoon as the surface low develop northeast into TN/KY by 00z. Additionally, strong shear will overspread the region for much of the period (decreasing from west to east with time). Large-scale ascent will be somewhat offset to the north of the better low-level moisture, but a glancing influence coupled with the sharpening of the southeast-advancing cold front will be sufficient to sustain convection in a strong warm advection regime. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, typical of supercell/QLCS environments and aided by a 45-60 kt low-level jet. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor given limited heating, and midlevel lapse rates also are expected to remain modest. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is evident in most forecast guidance, though surface-based instability is likely to remain muted. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface boundary, convection is likely to mostly be to the cool side of the boundary. However, given strength of shear and modest instability, some strong/severe wind potential is possible with organized line segments. While low-level lapse rates and instability are expected to remain poor, limiting overall tornado potential, a couple of mesovortex spin-ups within linear convection may still be possible given very favorable shear environment and any mesoscale pockets of greater instability. Currently, it is uncertain if convection will be able to develop ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Given the somewhat northward offset of stronger ascent and orientation of shear vectors to the initiating boundary, it appears low probability at this time that convection will be able to sufficiently deepen within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, if this occurs, a conditional risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes with supercells will exist. The severe risk should gradually lessen overnight with north and east extent as instability decreases and large-scale ascent continues to lift to the northeast of the region. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more