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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... In the wake of a prior Arctic cold front moving offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, strong surface high pressure will settle over a large portion of the CONUS through much of the period. This will result in a dry, stable airmass and thunderstorm potential will be low. Severe storms are not expected during the Day 4-8 period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Southeast on Wednesday, but severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A strong, Arctic cold front will continue to surge east across the Southeast on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning in a warm advection regime across parts of the central Gulf coast. This activity will shift east into southern GA and parts of north/central FL. While modest boundary-layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front, lapse rates will remain quite poor, limiting destabilization inland, with any substantial instability remaining over the warmer Gulf waters. While moderate vertical shear will overspread parts of the central Gulf coast and FL/GA, the poor thermodynamic environment will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Upper TX Coast and Southern LA... An upper shortwave trough will move across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. This will bring a swath of enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow across the south-central states. At the surface, a weak low will traverse the western Gulf Coast vicinity to southern MS through the period. Meanwhile, an Arctic cold front will surge south/southeast across the region mainly after 00z and into Wednesday morning. Ahead of the cold front, southerly near-surface flow and a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will transport 60s F dewpoints northward. However, the northward extent of deeper moisture return will be limited to near the I-10 corridor. A cool boundary-layer beneath a warm layer between 925-850 mb will result in little surface-based instability. Additionally, nebulous large-scale ascent will preclude convective development until near 00z when the upper trough impinges on the area. Cooling aloft and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates amid moistening low/midlevels will support MUCAPE values up to around 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, with elongated/straight hodographs forecast above the aforementioned warm layer. While the warm sector will be rather limited, and the cold front will quickly surge southeast after dark, a few stronger elevated storms will be possible. This activity will mainly pose a risk for marginally severe hail. There is some conditional potential toward the end of the period for near-surface based convection across parts of southern LA. However, this is conditional on the northward extent of the warm sector, which remains uncertain as the surface low is forecast to track very near the coast. If near-surface based storms can develop, some potential for strong gusts and a tornado or two will accompany storms given very favorable low-level SRH and large/curved low-level hodographs. Will include low tornado probabilities to encompass this scenario, though this outcome remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest on D2 Tuesday. Breezy westerly flow aloft will continue across portions of southern Arizona into southern New Mexico, with potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph. Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely, given ERCs near the 75th percentile, and as such the D3 40 percent area was converted to an Elevated delineation. Spotty Critical conditions will be possible again on D2, but coverage remains to localized too include Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more