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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Stronger wind gusts are possible with shallow convection in the Mid-Atlantic and with thunderstorms in central Florida. The overall severe potential remains low, however. ...20Z Update... With a bulk of the strongest convection moving off the East Coast, severe probabilities have been removed. Within the Mid-Atlantic, strong convective gusts may occur even behind the cold front. A small cluster of storms near the MD/PA border has shown very modest organization in the last 30 minutes or so. See MCD #111 for further details on this region. A few thunderstorms will remain along the cold front in central Florida. A few deeper convective cores were noted northwest of the Tampa vicinity. Those cores have shown a weakening trend as they have approached the shore. The strongest remaining cores are currently on the cool side of the boundary. While a strong gust or two may occur, coverage and magnitude limitations preclude an extension of Marginal severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. Read more

MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 0111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern through north central Virginia and adjacent portions of the Mid Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161755Z - 162030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany showers spreading east-northeast of the Blue Ridge, across the Mid Atlantic, this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Beneath the leading edge of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling (generally in the 850-500 mb layer) spreading across and east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, insolation is contributing to modest steepening of lapse rates and destabilization sufficient for low-topped convective development. As this spreads east-northeastward toward the coastal plain through 3-5 PM EDT, it remains unclear whether this will deepen through sufficiently cold layers aloft to support an appreciable risk for thunderstorms. However, to the south of a large and still deepening cyclone, activity is embedded within strong southwesterly to westerly deep-layer mean wind fields, which still appears to include 50-60 kt in the lowest 3 km AGL. Although a relatively cool and moist near-surface environment may not be particularly efficient contributing to the downward mixing of momentum, heavier precipitation in the stronger convection may still support occasional potentially damaging gusts reaching the surface. ..Kerr/Smith.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP... LAT...LON 39307913 39667718 38727610 36117916 35598103 35918088 36978026 39307913 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to evolve across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana, mainly Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough, digging southeastward across the Four Corners states early in the period, will gradually turn eastward as it emerges into the central/southern Plains region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overnight, the feature will move quickly eastward, reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley area late. At the surface, a weak wave is forecast to reside over Texas at the start of the period, along the main baroclinic zone separating the continental/Arctic airmass over the Plains from the maritime/Gulf airmass drifting northward into the Gulf Coast region. This wave is forecast to move slowly eastward through the afternoon, with a southward surge of the Arctic airmass to occur in its wake. By the end of the period, the low will likely have reached the central Gulf Coast region, with the cold Arctic airmass having surged southward across most if not all of Texas, and the lower Mississippi Valley area, by 12Z Wednesday. ...Southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana... As the weak surface wave moves eastward across Texas ahead of the progressive upper trough, persistent southerly flow will advect higher theta-e air northward into the south-central CONUS. With a cool/stable surface-based airmass expected to remain resistant to erosion, most of the destabilization resulting from the theta-e advection will likely remain elevated. Still, above-surface CAPE development will be sufficient to support convective development, though likely not to begin in earnest until after dark. Initial development should occur over eastern Texas and the Arklatex, with a couple of the strongest storms perhaps capable of producing marginal hail. Storms will spread eastward with time overnight, into the lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast region, with continuation of low-probability hail risk. Late in the period, some erosion of the low-level stable air may occur in coastal areas of Louisiana, which would potentially yield some low-end tornado potential. However, this scenario remains uncertain at this time. ..Goss.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z The previous forecast is largely on track. Some additional areas of windy conditions and low RH are possible across parts of northeastern New Mexico underneath a westerly low- and mid-level jet. However, fuels in this region do not look to be receptive to fire spread, with ERCs less than the 50th percentile. Therefore, the Elevated area was not expanded to include this region. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more