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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W JAX TO 10 ESE SSI TO 45 SSW CHS TO 25 NE CHS. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC031-089-161640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC039-049-191-161640- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN CHARLTON MCINTOSH AMZ350-352-354-374-450-452-161640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CRE TO 15 ENE GSB TO 45 E RZZ TO 35 W ORF. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 14 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-029-031-041-047-049-053-055-061-073-079-091- 095-103-107-117-129-133-137-139-141-143-147-177-187-161640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC093-175-199-550-620-650-700-710-735-740-800-810-161640- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ISLE OF WIGHT SOUTHAMPTON YORK Read more

MD 0110 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 13... FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTHERN CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Northern Florida...Southeast Georgia...Eastern Southern Carolina...Far Southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13... Valid 161348Z - 161545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 13 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind gusts will continue this morning from parts of northern Florida northeastward into southeast Georgia and the Carolinas. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong to severe storms from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the central Carolinas. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints in the 60s F are contributing to weak instability. The RAP has MUCAPE less than 500 J/kg in most areas across the Atlantic coastal plains. In spite of this, frontal forcing is strong near the line, which will likely help the line to maintain strength over the next few hours. With the strong low to mid-level flow in place, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, the line is expected to continue to produce isolated damaging gusts, especially along the parts that are more organized. The wind-damage threat will likely persist into the mid to late morning as the line moves through the Atlantic coastal areas. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 34418045 34568024 34737997 34937948 35057909 35057872 34797820 34577794 34147788 33797819 32927916 32018041 31068128 29818247 29698323 29918374 30338399 30818389 31358330 32418216 34038081 34418045 Read more

WW 0014 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0014 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VLD TO 15 W SAV TO 20 SSE OGB. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-047-089-121-161540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON NASSAU SUWANNEE GAC005-025-029-039-049-051-065-101-103-127-179-183-191-229-299- 305-161540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE WARE WAYNE SCC013-015-019-029-035-049-053-161540- Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH TO 30 E TLH. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 12 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/15Z. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC185-161500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH TO 30 E TLH. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 12 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/15Z. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC185-161500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH TO 30 E TLH. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 12 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/15Z. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC185-161500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TLH TO 30 E TLH. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 12 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 16/15Z. ..KERR..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC079-123-161500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MADISON TAYLOR GAC185-161500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 12 TORNADO AL FL GA 160840Z - 161500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 12 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama The Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia * Effective this Sunday morning from 340 AM until 1000 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for scattered damaging winds up to 55-70 mph as it moves eastward this morning. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Albany GA to 30 miles east southeast of Panama City FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 10...WW 11... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0013 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 13 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 13 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-047-089-121-161440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON NASSAU SUWANNEE GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-069-101-103-109- 127-161-165-179-183-191-229-251-267-299-305-161440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN JEFF DAVIS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE SCREVEN TATTNALL WARE WAYNE Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE PFN TO 10 E TLH TO 35 W AYS. ..GLEASON..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC037-045-065-073-077-079-123-129-161440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GULF JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC019-027-173-185-161440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERRIEN BROOKS LANIER LOWNDES THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0108 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 11...12... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Georgia...Far Southern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 11...12... Valid 161132Z - 161330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 11, 12 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible as a squall line moves eastward across the remainder of Georgia this morning. Southern South Carolina will also be affected. Weather watch issuance may become necessary later this morning, to the east of the ongoing watches. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a squall line located in Georgia from Albany northeastward to about 50 statute miles west of Augusta. The line is located ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the line are mostly in the 60s F, with the RAP showing weak instability in place. In spite of this, the line has remained organized likely due to strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and frontal forcing. Short-term model forecasts suggest the line will remain intact for several more hours this morning, as it approaches the Atlantic coast. The strong low to mid-level flow, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will likely enable the line to produce severe gusts, especially with bowing segments that form within the line itself. Very strong low-level shear will also likely support an isolated tornado threat in the short-term. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31238148 31728108 32248076 32668075 32948117 33148191 33218289 32988335 32238389 31798434 31478461 31278464 30998454 30818373 30798235 31238148 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+ kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should remain possible through about midday given the strength of the low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more near-term details. The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+ kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should remain possible through about midday given the strength of the low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more near-term details. The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+ kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should remain possible through about midday given the strength of the low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more near-term details. The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+ kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should remain possible through about midday given the strength of the low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more near-term details. The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+ kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should remain possible through about midday given the strength of the low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more near-term details. The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado or two remain possible through about midday from north Florida to parts of South Carolina. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado may also occur northward into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic... As an upper trough pivots northeastward from the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic today, an extensive QLCS in progress this morning will continue moving quickly eastward across north FL, southeast GA, and SC. Greater low-level moisture and related weak instability is present over parts of north FL and vicinity ahead of the line and a surface cold front. Boundary layer moisture and buoyancy quickly drop off with northward extent into GA/SC/NC. Still, very strong low-level flow remains present across these regions, with a 50-70+ kt low-level jet supporting ample 0-3 km SRH. Current expectations are for the northern portion of the line to gradually outpace appreciable surface-based instability, while the southern portion becomes increasingly displaced from the large-scale ascent associated with the departing upper trough. Even so, scattered severe/damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two should remain possible through about midday given the strength of the low-level flow present. See Mesoscale Discussion 108 for more near-term details. The northern portion this QLCS should remain generally elevated atop a near-surface stable layer in the lee of the Appalachians in NC to VA for the next few hours. But, it should eventually impinge on weak surface-based buoyancy later in the morning across the coastal Carolinas to southeastern VA. With very strong low-level flow/shear expected to be in place across these regions, any intensification of the thin convective line may yield occasional damaging winds and perhaps even a brief tornado. Even so, most guidance continues to suggest the overall severe threat will remain isolated/marginal from roughly NC northward into the Mid-Atlantic. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 02/16/2025 Read more