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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast is on track. Winds across the southwestern US and southern High Plains are expected to be generally light this afternoon, which should keep fire concerns localized. See the prior discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible from eastern North Carolina into parts of the Mid-Atlantic region through the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic states and eastern NC... A powerful mid-level trough from the Upper Midwest into the Southeast will pivot northeast reaching New England this evening before evolving into a mid-level low. An accompanying 120-kt 500-mb jet over the southern Appalachians late this morning will move to the Mid-Atlantic coast by late afternoon. A broken low-topped squall line extends from eastern VA southward into eastern NC and northeast SC. Strong low-level warm/moist advection to the southeast of a deepening cyclone will act to destabilize parts of the Delmarva ahead of the approaching squall line where temperatures have warmed into the mid 60s with lower 60s dewpoints. Around 250-500 J/kg SBCAPE to the east of the convective line will support a maintenance of convection given the strong large-scale forcing for ascent. Stronger portions within the broken convective line will aid in transporting intense lower tropospheric flow (60-70 kt around 0.5 km AGL) to the surface in the form of sporadic damaging gusts (55-70 mph). The severe risk will cease as the line moves east of the coast later this afternoon. ...North FL... The southern portion of the convective band will continue to gradually shift east across north FL through the mid afternoon. The 12 UTC Jacksonville raob showed considerable inversion around 700 mb which will act to limit overall storm intensity despite diurnal heating. An isolated risk for damaging gusts will be the primary threat with this activity before storms diminish in intensity later this afternoon. ..Smith/Lyons.. 02/16/2025 Read more