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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface, an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. If convection can become surface-based across this area, then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. This will result in a dearth of moisture and continental trajectories preclude Gulf moisture return. By the end of the period around Day 8/Tue, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will creep east over the Plains. This may allow some modest Gulf moisture to return northward across parts of TX. Regardless, thunderstorm potential appears low this weekend into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. This will result in a dearth of moisture and continental trajectories preclude Gulf moisture return. By the end of the period around Day 8/Tue, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will creep east over the Plains. This may allow some modest Gulf moisture to return northward across parts of TX. Regardless, thunderstorm potential appears low this weekend into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. This will result in a dearth of moisture and continental trajectories preclude Gulf moisture return. By the end of the period around Day 8/Tue, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will creep east over the Plains. This may allow some modest Gulf moisture to return northward across parts of TX. Regardless, thunderstorm potential appears low this weekend into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. This will result in a dearth of moisture and continental trajectories preclude Gulf moisture return. By the end of the period around Day 8/Tue, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will creep east over the Plains. This may allow some modest Gulf moisture to return northward across parts of TX. Regardless, thunderstorm potential appears low this weekend into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. This will result in a dearth of moisture and continental trajectories preclude Gulf moisture return. By the end of the period around Day 8/Tue, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will creep east over the Plains. This may allow some modest Gulf moisture to return northward across parts of TX. Regardless, thunderstorm potential appears low this weekend into early next week. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... Dry and stable surface high pressure will persist across much of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. This will result in a dearth of moisture and continental trajectories preclude Gulf moisture return. By the end of the period around Day 8/Tue, an upper ridge over the western U.S. will creep east over the Plains. This may allow some modest Gulf moisture to return northward across parts of TX. Regardless, thunderstorm potential appears low this weekend into early next week. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Height rises and building high pressure across the western US and southern/central Rockies will result in lighter winds where dry conditions are expected. Across the Plains, an arctic air mass will settle in, with cool and wet conditions across much of the southern and central Plains. Less precipitation is forecast across western Texas, but light winds and higher relative humidity is expected. Overall, fire weather concerns will be minimal owing to cool conditions and lighter wind speeds where the driest conditions are expected. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0112 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Mon Feb 17 2025 Areas affected...Central Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 180555Z - 180900Z SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with occasional rates of 1"/hr. DISCUSSION...Snowfall coverage has increased across portions of central Kansas as upper-level forcing overspreads the central Plains. Overall, rates appear to be light to moderate. Mesoscale banding is occurring, producing a few heavier bands with reports of heavy snow and visibility 1/4-1/2 mile over the last hour. Forecast soundings indicate very cold temperatures throughout the profile with saturation through the lowest levels, albeit a bit drier but sufficiently moist in the dendrite growth zone. Given the overspreading of forcing for ascent, snowfall should continue to increase in coverage and will continue over through the morning. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38300171 38590118 38940007 39109907 38929800 38399742 37989728 37459777 37509887 37800018 37990117 38000141 38300171 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more