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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, but organized severe storms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southeast/Florida... The region will be glancingly influenced by cyclonic flow aloft and a lead low-amplitude shortwave trough spreading eastward toward the Appalachians and Carolinas. Semi-organized linear convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near/ahead of a surface low and cold front near the middle Gulf Coast, with this convection/front expected to have shifted offshore by 12z Wednesday. This convection will probably generally persist east-southeastward during the day over the open waters of the northern/eastern Gulf. There is the possibility that some of this convection will reach and move inland across the west-central Florida, including the general Tampa Bay vicinity, during the afternoon. Cloud cover/poor lapse rates should tend to hinder destabilization inland, but a few stronger storms cannot be entirely discounted across the west-central Peninsula. The inland severe-weather potential currently appears sufficiently low to preclude wind/tornado probabilities, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, but organized severe storms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southeast/Florida... The region will be glancingly influenced by cyclonic flow aloft and a lead low-amplitude shortwave trough spreading eastward toward the Appalachians and Carolinas. Semi-organized linear convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near/ahead of a surface low and cold front near the middle Gulf Coast, with this convection/front expected to have shifted offshore by 12z Wednesday. This convection will probably generally persist east-southeastward during the day over the open waters of the northern/eastern Gulf. There is the possibility that some of this convection will reach and move inland across the west-central Florida, including the general Tampa Bay vicinity, during the afternoon. Cloud cover/poor lapse rates should tend to hinder destabilization inland, but a few stronger storms cannot be entirely discounted across the west-central Peninsula. The inland severe-weather potential currently appears sufficiently low to preclude wind/tornado probabilities, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, but organized severe storms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southeast/Florida... The region will be glancingly influenced by cyclonic flow aloft and a lead low-amplitude shortwave trough spreading eastward toward the Appalachians and Carolinas. Semi-organized linear convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near/ahead of a surface low and cold front near the middle Gulf Coast, with this convection/front expected to have shifted offshore by 12z Wednesday. This convection will probably generally persist east-southeastward during the day over the open waters of the northern/eastern Gulf. There is the possibility that some of this convection will reach and move inland across the west-central Florida, including the general Tampa Bay vicinity, during the afternoon. Cloud cover/poor lapse rates should tend to hinder destabilization inland, but a few stronger storms cannot be entirely discounted across the west-central Peninsula. The inland severe-weather potential currently appears sufficiently low to preclude wind/tornado probabilities, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the coastal Southeast and Florida Peninsula on Wednesday, but organized severe storms are not currently expected. ...Coastal Southeast/Florida... The region will be glancingly influenced by cyclonic flow aloft and a lead low-amplitude shortwave trough spreading eastward toward the Appalachians and Carolinas. Semi-organized linear convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near/ahead of a surface low and cold front near the middle Gulf Coast, with this convection/front expected to have shifted offshore by 12z Wednesday. This convection will probably generally persist east-southeastward during the day over the open waters of the northern/eastern Gulf. There is the possibility that some of this convection will reach and move inland across the west-central Florida, including the general Tampa Bay vicinity, during the afternoon. Cloud cover/poor lapse rates should tend to hinder destabilization inland, but a few stronger storms cannot be entirely discounted across the west-central Peninsula. The inland severe-weather potential currently appears sufficiently low to preclude wind/tornado probabilities, but this will be reevaluated into the Day 1 time frame. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a shortwave trough moving into northern AZ from the Great Basin. This upper feature will move east-southeast during the period reaching northern LA/southern AR by daybreak Wednesday. Surface analysis this morning delineates an arctic cold front from the Concho Valley northeastward into north TX. This boundary will continue to surge south-southeastward to the TX coast tonight. A modifying airmass over the northwest Gulf Basin will aid in destabilization this afternoon/evening over southeast TX. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as large-scale ascent increases. Forecast soundings continue to indicate this thunderstorm activity will likely remain elevated with around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly an isolated hail threat. The surface-based thunderstorm probabilities are greatest near the south-central and southeast LA coast. However, low-level lapse rates in a deep/saturated environment will be modest, likely limiting tornado potential. Nonetheless, if a couple of storms can become near-surface based in the coastal parishes, a risk for severe gusts may accompany the stronger storms. ..Smith.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing south along the southern High Plains faster than anticipated by last night's model guidance. 12z guidance has captured recent trends well and suggests cold air damming along the eastern slopes of the Guadelupe and Davis mountains will limit the eastern extent of elevated fire weather conditions. 15-25 mph winds within a dry, well-mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion on the 12z EPZ sounding lends confidence to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing south along the southern High Plains faster than anticipated by last night's model guidance. 12z guidance has captured recent trends well and suggests cold air damming along the eastern slopes of the Guadelupe and Davis mountains will limit the eastern extent of elevated fire weather conditions. 15-25 mph winds within a dry, well-mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion on the 12z EPZ sounding lends confidence to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing south along the southern High Plains faster than anticipated by last night's model guidance. 12z guidance has captured recent trends well and suggests cold air damming along the eastern slopes of the Guadelupe and Davis mountains will limit the eastern extent of elevated fire weather conditions. 15-25 mph winds within a dry, well-mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion on the 12z EPZ sounding lends confidence to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing south along the southern High Plains faster than anticipated by last night's model guidance. 12z guidance has captured recent trends well and suggests cold air damming along the eastern slopes of the Guadelupe and Davis mountains will limit the eastern extent of elevated fire weather conditions. 15-25 mph winds within a dry, well-mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion on the 12z EPZ sounding lends confidence to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Morning surface observations show a strong cold front pushing south along the southern High Plains faster than anticipated by last night's model guidance. 12z guidance has captured recent trends well and suggests cold air damming along the eastern slopes of the Guadelupe and Davis mountains will limit the eastern extent of elevated fire weather conditions. 15-25 mph winds within a dry, well-mixed layer above a shallow nocturnal inversion on the 12z EPZ sounding lends confidence to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 02/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will dig southward and slowly eject across the desert southwest today. Downward mixing of westerly flow aloft across southern Arizona into southern New Mexico will support potential for overlap of relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained surface winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30 mph). ERCs are near the 75th percentile, however, primarily localized Critical conditions are expected. This will preclude the need to include any Critical areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0113 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST AR AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern OK into northwest AR and extreme southwest MO Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 181348Z - 181645Z SUMMARY...Light to locally moderate freezing rain and/or sleet is possible this morning. Increasing snow rates are possible by late morning across northeast Oklahoma and vicinity. DISCUSSION...Light precipitation is gradually increasing this morning across parts of central/eastern OK, in response to warm advection near/above 850 mb atop a southward-advancing arctic airmass. The 12Z OUN sounding depicts saturation primarily below a notable temperature inversion around 700 mb. In the short term, given the relatively shallow saturated layer and lack of deeper ascent above this layer, a period of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain will be possible, with relatively efficient ice accretion in areas where near-surface temperatures fall through the 20s F. With time, deeper/stronger ascent will result in locally heavier precipitation rates later this morning. This may be accompanied by an transition to sleet and snow (especially with northward extent), due to continued near-surface cold advection and wet-bulb cooling of the initially dry layer near 700 mb. Snow rates may begin to increase by late morning across northeast OK and vicinity, with locally heavy snow possible this afternoon. ..Dean.. 02/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 35729755 36679734 37079643 37039450 36179406 34359354 34229401 34719468 34859503 34789559 34549622 34219700 33929779 34189828 34879786 35269768 35729755 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface, an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. If convection can become surface-based across this area, then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface, an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. If convection can become surface-based across this area, then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface, an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. If convection can become surface-based across this area, then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface, an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. If convection can become surface-based across this area, then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening across parts of southeast Texas, shifting across southern Louisiana tonight. Hail should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and occasional severe gusts may occur along the immediate Louisiana Coast. ...Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana... A mid-level shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward from the Great Basin to the southern Plains by tonight. At the surface, an arctic cold front will continue surging southward across TX through the day, eventually reaching the TX Coast by late tonight. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to advance northward along/near the middle/upper TX Coast ahead of the front. Thunderstorms should eventually form by this evening across parts of southeast TX as the shortwave trough approaches. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest this convection will likely remain elevated above a near-surface stable layer. Still, around 1000-1250 J/kg of MUCAPE aided by modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear in the cloud bearing layer, may support isolated severe hail with the more robust cores. This activity will spread eastward across portions of southern LA late this evening and overnight while posing mainly a continued hail threat. There is also a low, but non-zero, chance of near-surface-based thunderstorms along the immediate LA Coast late tonight into early Wednesday morning, where somewhat greater low-level moisture should be present. If convection can become surface-based across this area, then isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado would be possible. ..Gleason/Dean.. 02/18/2025 Read more