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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z No changes are needed to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Four Corners and central Rockies this afternoon with isolated dry thunderstorms possible across parts of the Southwest. ...Four Corners/Southwest... A cold front is noted in early-morning surface observations pushing southward across the central Plains/High Plains. This front will continue southward over the next 24 hours, reaching portions of southeast NM/western TX by this evening. A gradual weakening of the lee trough is expected as this occurs, which will diminish regional winds across the region compared to previous days. However, a swath of 15-20 mph winds will likely persist this afternoon across northern AZ into southern WY where the local pressure gradient will remain somewhat robust due to a building surface high across the northern Great Basin. With widespread RH minimums in the single digits to low teens, elevated fire weather conditions will be likely. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts between 25-35 mph along the AZ/UT border, which should result in transient critical conditions. Coverage and duration of such conditions should remain sufficiently limited to preclude higher risk highlights. Regional 00z soundings sampled around 100-250 J/kg MUCAPE atop a deep and very dry boundary layer (LCLs near 4 km). This air mass will largely remain in place through today and will support some potential for dry lightning strikes as thunderstorms develop via orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim by late afternoon. ...Northern Rockies... The isolated dry thunderstorm risk area across the northern Rockies was removed for this forecast update. Cold mid-level temperatures in proximity to the center of a departing upper low will likely provide adequate (albeit weak) buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon; however, recent guidance shows very limited overlap of lightning-supporting buoyancy profiles and dry fuels. Height rises/subsidence in the wake of the upper low will also limit overall thunderstorm coverage across northern WY and central MT. While a dry lightning strike or two is possible, the overall threat appears sufficiently limited to remove the risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible this afternoon and tonight from eastern Colorado eastward across the Central Plains into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. ..Hart/Marsh.. 08/09/2025 Read more

MD 1912 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1912 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...parts of extreme northeast Iowa into southern and central Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 091503Z - 091630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds gusts are possible if the ongoing storms can intensify through mid-afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...An elongated MCS continues to gradually progress eastward along a stationary surface frontal boundary. Small bowing segments along the IA/MN border have recently produced sub-severe winds, with the Mason City, IA ASOS recently reporting rapid surface pressure rises and a 43 kt gust. Though some anvil cirrus have overspread some of the preceding warm sector, surface temperatures are warming into the 80s F amid at least low 70s F dewpoints, yielding 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the aforementioned buoyancy, the stronger deep-layer shear is primarily confined to the post-frontal environment, and is oriented roughly parallel to the elongated MCS leading line. As such, there are questions regarding how intense this MCS may become through mid-afternoon, with regional radar imagery showing convective outflow gradually undercutting the MCS. Nonetheless, given preceding buoyancy, it is plausible that an uptick in damaging gust potential may increase pending favorable self-organization of the MCS. Such conditions are being monitored for the subsequent need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 42579149 42649188 42769225 42919257 43009272 43139278 43259270 43529205 43849123 43819114 44698903 44738779 43958751 43058784 42778806 42578867 42508961 42579149 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 14:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 15:27:14 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 14:41:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Aug 2025 14:41:17 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091440 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Ivo is being affected by moderate northeasterly shear, with its low-level center near the northern edge of the deep convection. Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.5/55 kt and 3.0/45 kt, respectively, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS range from 35-55 kt. Ivo's intensity is held at 50 kt, leaning toward the blend of CI numbers. The cyclone is expected to reach sub-26 degree Celsius waters in 12-24 hours, while at the same time the environment becomes more stable and more convergent aloft. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated, and Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical in about 36 hours when the environment becomes too hostile to support organized deep convection. The remnant low will last for a few more days after that, likely opening up into a trough by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Ivo's position was adjusted a bit north based on recent data, which ended up shifting the entire forecast track in that direction as well. Still, the track models are tightly clustered and in good agreement that Ivo will move generally west-northwestward and then westward, steered by low- to mid-level ridging to the north. The NHC track forecast is relatively close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 21.4N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 21.9N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 22.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 22.6N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg