Aggregator

...IVO STRENGTHENS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Aug 08 the center of Ivo was located near 20.4, -111.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 298 WTPZ24 KNHC 082033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC FRI AUG 08 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 111.2W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 110.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.7N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.0N 115.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 119.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.9N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 111.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the Southwest will shift westward and build across much of the West by D4/Monday. An upper-level trough will eject across the Pacific Northwest D5/Tuesday into D6/Wednesday, bringing an increase to winds amid dry conditions. Monsoonal moisture may return northward across portions of Arizona late in the extended, with possible expansion of dry thunderstorm chances. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Residual moisture beneath the ridge should allow for a continuation of afternoon thunderstorm potential on D3/Sunday for portions of the Southwest amid low environmental PWAT values and receptive fuels. 10% probabilities have been maintained for the region through Sunday. Thunderstorm potential may extend into early next week, with a gradual increase in moisture northward. Limited predictability within the weak-flow regime beyond D3/Sunday precludes introducing any additional highlights. ...Wind/RH... Elevated to critical conditions may arise next week (D5/Tuesday-D7/Thursday) for portions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin, as a trough moves inland and enhanced westerly flow overspreads the region. However, considerable spread exists among medium-range guidance regarding the timing/placement/magnitude of this trough, precluding the introduction of any highlights at this time. ..Thornton.. 08/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail, and a couple tornadoes are possible this evening and tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains. ...20z Update... ...Upper Midwest... Latest radar/satellite trends show a residual storm complex and cloud cover over northeast Minnesota. This activity continues to diminish, with some weak convection developing in proximity. Surface observations suggest little evidence of extensive outflow in its wake, though southeasterly surface winds are prevalent across much of Minnesota where cloud cover has remained persistent. To the west, a cold front continues to advance eastward and is beginning to impinge upon portions of northwest Minnesota into eastern South Dakota. Storm initiation is still expected by early evening along the cold front in eastern South/North Dakota, with a quick transition from cellular to linear modes. Not much has changed in terms of expectations from the prior outlook. As this activity grows upscale and matures, some potential for a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds may emerge in far northeast Minnesota, but details remain uncertain and will be reevaluated in the 01z Outlook. With that said, given the potential for upscale growth, have expanded the Marginal area (Level 1 of 5) eastward into portions of northeast Iowa and vicinity. ...Southwest South Dakota/Nebraska Panhandle... Surface observations and SPC mesoanalysis show a post-frontal airmass with enough residual moisture to allow for modest destabilization across the region. Recent CAM guidance suggests the potential for isolated convection to develop in the high terrain of eastern Wyoming and persist eastward into southwest South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given effective shear of 45-50 kt in association with enhanced flow along the southern periphery of the upper-level trough, a few supercell storms are possible with severe hail/wind the main threats. Therefore, have introduced a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) to encompass this potential. ..Karstens/Lyons.. 08/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Fri Aug 08 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... The large convective complex that affected ND/MN last night has mostly dissipated, with the associated shortwave trough lifting across the MN Arrowhead. Shortwave ridging is occurring in the wake of this system, which should suppress deep convective development for most of the afternoon. Southeasterly low-level winds and daytime heating across much of MN and eastern SD will help re-establish a very moist/unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) by late afternoon. Another strong shortwave trough now over WY will begin affecting the ND/MN area by that time, with an associated cold front approaching the area. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along/ahead of the front, mainly after 00z. Deep-layer shear will support supercell storm structures capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A few tornadoes are also possible, given the very moist environment and backed low-level winds. However, many of the storms may be elevated and behind the front. Activity will persist deep into the night, spreading eastward across MN and into parts of northern WI and western Upper MI. Read more