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WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE COS TO 20 SW ITR. ..SPC..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-041-061-073-100440- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY EL PASO KIOWA LINCOLN KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC087-145-100440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HITCHCOCK RED WILLOW Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DEN TO 40 N LIC TO 35 NW IML TO 40 ENE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 ..MOORE..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-039-041-061-063-073-095-121-125-100240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN PHILLIPS WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-009-017-029-057-063-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-115-117- 135-145-149-171-100240- Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DEN TO 40 N LIC TO 35 NW IML TO 40 ENE AIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1916 ..MOORE..08/10/25 ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...PUB...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-039-041-061-063-073-095-121-125-100240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN PHILLIPS WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-039-109-153-179-181-193-199-100240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE DECATUR LOGAN RAWLINS SHERIDAN SHERMAN THOMAS WALLACE NEC005-009-017-029-057-063-075-085-087-091-101-111-113-115-117- 135-145-149-171-100240- Read more

MD 1916 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR NORTHERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1916 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Northern Kansas to southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 100035Z - 100230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing across northeast Colorado and far southwest Nebraska are expected to spread east through late evening. Additionally, new thunderstorm development is anticipated across north-central KS between 2-4 UTC and will likely pose a severe hail/wind threat. Downstream watch issuance is likely to address these concerns. DISCUSSION...Gradual upscale growth continues across far northeast CO and southwest NE as a mix of multi-cell clusters and embedded supercells continues to migrate east. Recent GOES IR imagery continues to show new/intense updraft development across this region as convection begins to move into richer low-level moisture and better MLCAPE. Moderate deep-layer shear remains over the region and will continue to promote storm intensification and organization - most likely into a mix of convective bands with embedded supercells - as storms spread east downstream into southern NE and northern KS through late evening. Further east across north-central KS, surface observations and recent upper-air analyses depict an effective warm frontal zone draped across the region. Shallow cumulus is noted in visible imagery along/north of this boundary, but appreciable deepening has not yet been observed - likely owing to residual capping sampled in the recent 00z TOP sounding. However, this RAOB also sampled extreme buoyancy (~4000 J/kg MLCAPE) that will likely be realized as the nocturnal jet strengthens between 2-4 UTC and bolsters isentropic ascent over the frontal zone. Zonal deep-layer flow along the boundary will likely promote a mix of semi-discrete cells and clusters with some an attendant threat for large hail and severe gusts. Downstream watch issuance is expected in the coming hours to address both of these scenarios. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 41239660 41159636 40899624 38969624 38769628 38629652 38609693 38610076 38620118 38730134 39000131 40820121 41120105 41230081 41250050 41239660 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 091955Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM MDT Sat Aug 9 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon in a moist and very unstable environment. A few supercells capable of very large hail and eventually damaging winds are expected across the watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles south of Limon CO to 65 miles north of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0582 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0582 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms remain possible tonight from eastern Colorado into parts of the Central Plains and Midwest. ...Central Plains into parts of IA/MO/IL... Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening across parts of eastern CO, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Moist low-level post-frontal flow may continue to support redevelopment of cells across eastern CO through the evening, with a continued threat of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Farther east, ongoing convection may increase in coverage and spread eastward through the evening into parts of western/central NE and KS, generally along and north of a surface boundary draped across western/northern KS. Strong instability remains in place near/north of this boundary, and moderate midlevel westerlies atop low-level easterly winds are resulting in sufficient effective shear (40-50 kt) for storm organization. Storm clustering and MCS development will be possible later this evening, with an increasing threat for severe wind gusts, potentially near/above 75 mph. Another area of potential development this evening is near the surface boundary in the northeast KS/southeast NE vicinity, supported by a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. Initial development could evolve into a few supercells, capable of large to very large hail, localized gusty winds, and possibly a tornado. The increasing nocturnal low-level jet could also support some clustering of initial discrete cells, and/or maintenance of a possible MCS approaching from the west. This could result in an overnight threat for damaging wind across eastern NE/northeast KS into parts of IA and northern MO. Finally, strong to locally severe storms remain possible this evening from northeast MO into northern IL, within a very moist and strongly unstable environment. Deep-layer shear is weaker compared to areas farther west, but locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Recent HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests that, if an MCS develops tonight over the central Plains, it may reach as far as eastern IA/western IL by 12Z Sunday morning, with some wind-damage potential. ...Southeast AZ... A few strong storms remain possible into this evening across parts of southeast AZ, within a moderately unstable environment. Localized strong gusts will remain possible before a general weakening trend later this evening. ..Dean.. 08/10/2025 Read more

MD 1915 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0530 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into adjacent portions of Nebraska and Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 092230Z - 100030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Upscale growth is anticipated in the next 2-3 hours across far northeast Colorado and adjacent portions of Nebraska and Kansas as storm interactions increase. This will be accompanied by an increase in severe wind potential. DISCUSSION...A mixture of left and right-split supercells continues across northeast CO with several reports of 1-2 inch hail and 50-60 mph gusts noted over the past couple of hours. This convective evolution is indicative of a kinematic environment characterized by elongated, nearly-straight hodographs. With no appreciable change in the flow fields anticipated in the next several hours, this mix of splitting cells should continue for the near-term. One consequence of the mixed storm motions will be a tendency for increased storm interactions in the coming hours that should result in upscale growth and consolidation of cold pools as convection migrates east into higher buoyancy. Additionally, a subtle low-level confluence band noted in surface observations and KGLD reflectivity data may act as a foci for storm development/propagation. As such, the expectation is for gradual upscale growth over the next 2-3 hours across far northeast CO into northwest KS and southwest NE (though some uncertainty remains regarding the most likely corridor of downstream propagation). The potential for strong to severe winds should increase as this occurs. Further south, a more isolated right-moving supercell near Limon, CO will likely maintain separation from the upscale growth to the north. Likewise, stronger capping and weaker forcing for ascent downstream should tend to limit additional development and help maintain storm isolated. Consequently, this cell will likely continue to pose a significant hail threat for the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 08/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39410406 39630384 40560296 40790282 40990247 41040212 41050153 40930111 40790087 40470075 40090075 39790098 39470128 39260169 39090218 38820305 38750349 38780381 38970398 39150408 39410406 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more