Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to abate on Monday across the Four Corners region, though some threat for isolated dry thunderstorms will continue for parts of central AZ to far western NM. A shortwave trough evident in water-vapor imagery over WY/UT is forecast to weaken and stall over the southern High Plains by late Monday. This will favor subtle surface pressure rises across the eastern Great Basin/Four Corners region with relatively weaker low-level winds. Although sustained winds will be modest, deep mixing will promote occasional gusts upwards of 15-25 mph across northern AZ to northwest NM where RH values should fall into the low teens. Transient elevated conditions are possible, but poor deterministic agreement and/or ensemble consensus precluded introducing risk highlights. However, weak orographic ascent along the Mogollon Rim within a deeply-mixed, but weakly buoyant, air mass will support some potential for isolated dry thunderstorms. Given recent dry lightning over the region within a similar thermodynamic environment, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were maintained and focused along and north of the more prominent terrain features. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more