Aggregator

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe storms will be possible Monday from late afternoon through the evening, centered over the southern Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Scattered notable storms may also occur over parts of North Dakota into northern Minnesota. ...Southern High Plains to the Lower MO Valley... Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Plains, with 20-25 kt midlevel westerlies. At the surface, a moist axis will extend roughly from the eastern TX Panhandle into MO, with northeast surface winds from KS into northwest TX early. As heating occurs, low-level winds should veer to east/southeast, with around 2000 J/kg MUCAPE developing by peak heating. Storms are likely to develop from northeast NM into TX as the air mass will be uncapped. Directional wind change with height will support a few longer-lived cells producing hail. A few aggregate clusters may also produce locally severe gusts through early evening. ...ND into northern MN... A speed max will dive southeastward out of SK and MT, with midlevel vorticity maximum spread across ND and northwest MN late in the day. This will occur at a time of peak heating near a surface trough which will be draped NE to SW across the area. Given the focus for ascent and uncapped air mass, scattered storms will develop beneath the cool temperatures aloft. Despite limited moisture, a few cells may produce primarily small hail and locally strong gusts. ..Jewell.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of 06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around 15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager. Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher. In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for dry lightning should manifest this afternoon. ..Moore.. 08/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible across parts of the central High Plains later today into tonight. Other strong to potentially severe storms may occur from the southern High Plains into parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes. ...Central/southern High Plains vicinity... In the wake of extensive antecedent convection, moisture and instability may be somewhat weaker (compared to Saturday) within the post-frontal regime across the central High Plains later today. However, midlevel lapse rates will remain steep, with sufficient moisture for moderate destabilization this afternoon from near the CO Front Range southward to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A midlevel shortwave moving through the base of a positively tilted trough across the northern/central Rockies/High Plains will aid in scattered storm development this afternoon. Veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for initial supercell potential and a threat for hail, localized strong to severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Most guidance suggests some potential for upscale growth into the south-central High Plains by evening, accompanied by a threat for one or more corridors of strong to severe gusts. ...Eastern KS/northeast OK into parts of the Midwest... A remnant MCS may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period across parts of IA and northern MO. Most guidance suggests this system will tend to weaken with time, as it encounters weaker instability and deep-layer shear. Some threat for isolated damaging wind could persist into the early part of the forecast period. An outflow-influenced surface boundary will be left in the wake of this MCS across parts of central/southern KS into MO, though guidance varies regarding the position of this boundary by afternoon. Guidance also varies regarding the potential for diurnal redevelopment in the vicinity of this boundary, but moderate to strong buoyancy could support vigorous updrafts if any storms can be sustained. Deep-layer flow/shear may remain relatively weak, but at least some potential for hail and damaging wind could evolve during the afternoon and evening. Farther north, the MCV associated with the decayed MCS will move northeastward toward parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This MCV may be accompanied by modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow, and recent HRRR guidance suggests some potential for storms with localized damaging winds later today across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, in conjunction with the MCV. ...Southeast AZ... Scattered storms will again be possible this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ and vicinity, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable environment. Locally gusty winds will be possible, though in the absence of stronger midlevel flow, potential for more than very isolated severe gusts remains uncertain at this time. ..Dean/Moore.. 08/10/2025 Read more