Aggregator

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 722 WTPZ44 KNHC 092038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Moderate northeasterly shear is displacing most of Ivo's convection south of the center, and the convective mass itself has begun to shrink. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a T3.0 classification from TAFB, and this is also supported by a recent ASCAT pass which showed a maximum of 38 kt (but is likely limited by the instrument's resolution). Continued moderate shear, gradually cooling sea surface temperatures, and a stable air mass ahead of Ivo are forecast to continue the weakening trend. GFS- and ECMWF-based simulated satellite imagery show all deep convection dissipating by 36 hours, which is when Ivo is shown degenerating into a remnant low in the official forecast. Dissipation is now expected by day 3, which is when the remnant low loses its integrity in the global model fields. Ivo has been moving westward, or 280/6 kt. Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to keep Ivo on a westward or west-northwestward track through dissipation. There is low spread among the track models, and only minor adjustments were made to the new NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 21.0N 113.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092025 2100 UTC SAT AUG 09 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.5W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 21.4N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 120.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 113.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 092037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 200 PM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 ...IVO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 113.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 113.5 West. Ivo is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Ivo is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo will continue to affect the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...IVO WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY LATE SUNDAY... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Aug 09 the center of Ivo was located near 21.0, -113.5 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe storms are possible through tonight from eastern Colorado, across the Central Plains and into the western Great Lakes. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible in southeast Arizona. ...20z Update Western Great Lakes... A large convective complex remains ongoing as of this afternoon from portions of eastern WI, into eastern IA and northern MO. Diurnal heating ahead of the remnant storms and outflow should promote some redevelopment/organization this afternoon and evening. Behind the system, widespread cloud cover and precipitation has largely overturned the air mass. This suggests little if any redevelopment and severe risk is expected. The Slight Risk for damaging gusts will be maintained ahead of the ongoing storms, with severe probabilities removed where air mass recovery is unlikely in the wake of the complex. See MCD#1914 for short-term guidance. ..Central Plains to Midwest... On the southwestern flank of the ongoing convective complex over the Upper Midwest, gradual air mass recovery is ongoing ahead of a slow-moving cold front, likely continuing into this evening. Afternoon model guidance shows an increase in low-level warm air advection from a 35-50 kt low-level jet is likely along the front and prior outflow intersection across southeast NE and northwest KS. The increase in ascent should foster widespread thunderstorms after dark across the central Missouri Valley. Very large, but likely elevated, CAPE along the boundary (3500+ J/kg) should support one or more clusters with damaging winds and some hail potential tonight. Minor changes were made to the Slight Risk area to better align with current frontal position and guidance. ...Front Range... Confidence continues to increase that upslope flow and the passage of a mid-level trough should support scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, in several rounds through tonight. Storms should continue developing this afternoon off the higher terrain over eastern CO/WY. Moderate buoyancy, steep lapse rates and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear suggests hail (some potentially 2+ inch) will be likely along with the potential for damaging gusts and a tornado or two. Minimal changes were made to this outlook area for the latest guidance, see MCD#1913 for short-term info. ..Lyons.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...IA/WI Vicinity... An intense small-scale MCS affected parts of eastern NE and western IA overnight and this morning. The remnants of this system are moving across eastern IA and have weakened below severe limits. This activity will likely persist eastward across WI and into parts of Upper MI through the day, but a sagging cold front ahead of the storms coupled with some cloud cover limit the confidence it can re-intensify to severe levels. Nevertheless will maintain a SLGT risk for the areas ahead of this activity. ...NE/MO/IA tonight... Substantial airmass stabilization has occurred across this area in the wake of the overnight storms. It appears likely that relatively strong heating and return of a very moist air mass will result in strong CAPE values by early evening. A strengthening low-level jet will enhance lift along the retreating outflow boundary, likely resulting in rapid thunderstorm development after 00z over northeast KS. These storms will build east-northeastward into southern IA/northern MO through the evening/night with a risk of upscale organization and damaging winds/hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Southeasterly low-level winds will help maintain a very moist/unstable air mass over eastern CO this afternoon, with dewpoints in the 60s and MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will form off the Palmer Ridge by mid-afternoon and spread eastward toward western KS this evening. Forecast soundings show an environment favorable for supercell structures. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two are possible. This activity may persist into the night, spreading eastward across central KS. After dark, persistent southeasterly low-level winds into the foothills of central/southern CO will interact with an approaching shortwave trough to pose the risk of continued re-development of strong/severe storms, with very large hail possible. ...Southeast AZ... Considerable low/mid level moisture are present today over parts of southeast AZ and southwest NM, with dewpoints in the low 60s. Full sunshine will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain that will propagate westward during the evening. Locally damaging wind gusts are possible. Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0581 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Minor adjustments were made to Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances across Arizona in line with recent model trends. Otherwise, the Elevated remains unchanged. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 08/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region through the weekend. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across the greater Great Basin and western Four Corners with another day of 5-15% RH minimums likely. Short to medium-range guidance depicts the passage of a weak mid-level trough across the central and southern Rockies through Sunday evening. While sustained surface winds are expected to remain fairly modest (generally less than 15 mph), augmented flow near the top of the boundary layer should promote frequent gusts between 20-25 mph over a region with dry fuels and active fires, resulting in periods of elevated fire weather conditions. The mid-level trough will also promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from southern AZ to eastern NM. While thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected to be greatest across NM, more isolated convection developing along and north of the Mogollon Rim should reside in a dry/deeply-mixed environment favorable for dry lightning strikes. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more