Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday over parts of the southern High Plains, southern Rockies, and Southeast. ...Southern High Plains/Southern Rockies... Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of the High Plains on Thursday, as a trough moves southeastward through the central Plains. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will likely be located from eastern New Mexico northward into southern Colorado. As surface heating takes place, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain, with the storms moving eastward into the lower elevations in the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, lapse rates will be steep, and deep-layer shear could be strong enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible. ...Southeast... A broad low-amplitude cyclonic flow pattern is forecast across the Southeast on Thursday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Gulf Coast states early in the day as surface temperatures warm. The greatest convective coverage should be located along or near zones of focused low-level convergence. In spite of a lack of large-scale ascent, a few marginally severe storms could develop as low-level lapse rates become steep during the day. Severe gusts would be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more