Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern High Plains... At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability. Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in the afternoon and evening. Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat. ...Southeast... West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence. Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. ..Broyles.. 05/27/2025 Read more

WW 0335 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 335 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 335 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC025-039-057-071-089-123-157-167-175-201-239-255-283-285-291- 297-311-321-469-481-270640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN CHAMBERS COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GALVESTON GOLIAD HARRIS JACKSON KARNES LA SALLE LAVACA LIBERTY LIVE OAK MCMULLEN MATAGORDA VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ237-330-335-270640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS MATAGORDA BAY GALVESTON BAY Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are expected across parts of the southern Plains and over portions of the Southeast. Hail and wind are the primary threats. ...Southern Plains... Large-scale pattern will change little through the upcoming day1 period, and remains bifurcated with a distinct southern stream extending from northern Mexico into the Gulf States. Latest model guidance suggests at least one notable weak short-wave trough will approach the Big Bend later this evening. Water-vapor imagery depicts this feature near the northern Baja Peninsula. As this feature approaches far west TX, southeasterly boundary-layer flow will force higher moisture deep into the Big Bend. Ongoing convection across south central TX should also contribute to this westward push of low-level moisture. Strong surface heating west of this returning moisture will allow convective temperatures to easily be breached and isolated robust convection is expected to develop after 21z, both across the higher terrain of west TX into northeast Mexico west of DRT. While 500mb flow is not forecast to be that strong, forecast soundings suggest slow-moving supercells are possible. Very large hail is the most likely severe threat. Some increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period. This may encourage one or more MCS-type complexes near the international border. ...Southeast... Slow-moving MCS has matured over south central into southeast TX. This complex will forward propagate into the lower MS Valley by sunrise. A weak short-wave trough is likely affiliated with this MCS and some increase in mid-level flow is expected across MS into GA by mid day, which should aid potential convective organization. While some weakening may be noted early in the period, boundary-layer heating will aid destabilization and new updrafts should develop along the leading convective outflow. A few weak supercells are possible, but the primary storm mode should be mixed with clusters and line segments. This favors damaging winds, though some hail can not be ruled out. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 05/27/2025 Read more