Severe Storms

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 05/27/2025 Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ASD TO 35 N GPT TO 35 S MEI TO 25 ENE MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC039-041-045-047-059-111-131-153-271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE WAYNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 336 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 271005Z - 271800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 336 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East and Southeast Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 505 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster of thunderstorms should continue to pose some threat for scattered damaging winds this morning into the early afternoon. Isolated hail may occur with cells ahead of the cluster, and a brief tornado also appears possible with circulations embedded within the line. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Natchez MS to 50 miles east of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 N MSY TO ASD TO 25 SSW PIB TO 30 SW MEI TO 10 W MEI TO 30 N MEI. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC103-271640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ST. TAMMANY MSC023-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-067-075-109-111-131-147-153- 271640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON JASPER JONES LAUDERDALE PEARL RIVER PERRY STONE WALTHALL WAYNE GMZ530-271640- CW Read more