Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 27 19:25:08 UTC 2025.

MD 1008 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1008 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...eastern Alabama...the western Florida Panhandle...western and central Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271708Z - 271845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A line of storms in Alabama has started to strengthen. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Low to mid 70s dewpoints have become well established east of an ongoing line of storms in Alabama. Within this region, abundant sunshine has permitted heating into the low 80s across central Alabama to the upper 80s along the Gulf Coast. This has resulted in moderate destabilization by mid-day. SPC mesoanalysis indicates an uncapped environment ahead of this line with recent lightning trends indicating a strengthening of convection within the past 30 minutes. Shear is relatively weak across the region, indicated by lack of upper-level cloudcover across Alabama and Georgia ahead of this mornings convection. However, a well-established cold pool/MCV will likely be sufficient to maintain some severe weather threat through the afternoon. In addition, slightly stronger mid-level flow (~35 knots) is apparent from the KHDC VWP, indicating that some stronger mid-level flow may overspread the warm sector through the afternoon and support greater storm organization. Overall, the warm/moist profile and weak lapse rates should limit the hail threat with water-loaded downdrafts and a damaging wind threat as the primary threat. The greatest threat will be with any embedded bowing segments which could develop along the line. Cold air damming across northern Georgia will likely represent the northernmost extent of the severe weather threat with strengthening high pressure likely maintaining the relative location of this colder air through the day. Some damaging wind threat could persist for a few counties into the colder air, but as the colder air deepens with northward extent, the threat for surface-based damaging wind gusts should dissipate. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33608639 33878492 33738390 33258243 32748231 32188249 31818303 30868432 30358617 30688789 31278804 32638681 33608639 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0337 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue May 27 17:54:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ...Synopsis... Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be identified in later outlook updates. Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains, and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal severe threat could persist overnight into western OK. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ...Synopsis... Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be identified in later outlook updates. Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains, and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal severe threat could persist overnight into western OK. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ...Synopsis... Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be identified in later outlook updates. Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains, and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal severe threat could persist overnight into western OK. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ...Synopsis... Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be identified in later outlook updates. Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains, and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal severe threat could persist overnight into western OK. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ...Synopsis... Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be identified in later outlook updates. Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains, and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal severe threat could persist overnight into western OK. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS...AND FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible across the northern Texas Panhandle and vicinity, and across southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico. Isolated wind damage may occur across the Gulf coast/Southeast. ...Synopsis... Blocking will persist over the CONUS, with a midlevel trough over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and a southern stream from TX into the Southeast. The primary baroclinic zone will remain from south TX eastward across the Gulf coast into the coastal Carolinas. Boundary-layer dewpoints are likely to remain above 70 F in areas not overturned by prior convection, which will again support MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft. However, the influence of convection from D1 casts uncertainty on the potential severe-storm threats tomorrow from LA into the Southeast, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL and potential mesoscale corridors of greater wind-damage threat could be identified in later outlook updates. Farther west, the scenario across the southern High Plains is looking more bimodal with time. To the south, lingering moisture/lapse rates and diurnal heating over the high terrain could initiate isolated supercells capable of producing large hail across southwest TX and southeast NM. To the north, an embedded shortwave trough rotating south-southeastward over the central High Plains, and an associated cold frontal surge, will focus thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the northern TX Panhandle. A mix of storm clusters and supercells will be capable of producing large hail and severe outflow gusts as convection spreads southeastward Wednesday afternoon/evening, and a marginal severe threat could persist overnight into western OK. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more