Severe Storms

MD 1007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1007 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0855 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...southeastern Mississippi...southern Alabama...and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271355Z - 271530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...An increasingly unstable airmass is developing ahead of ongoing storms. A downstream watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...An ongoing cluster/line of storms moving across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana has had occasional reports of wind damage. Ahead of this line, a very moist airmass is in place with low to mid 70s dewpoints. In addition, mostly clear skies are present which has allowed for temperatures to warm into the low 80s. Additional heating is anticipated with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg expected. Mid-level flow around 30 to 35 knots (sampled by HDC VWP) should provide ample shear for maintenance of the ongoing cluster. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from this activity through the late morning and into the afternoon. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to address this threat. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30919014 31598979 32558862 32968793 33308693 33088596 32538551 31368523 30478587 30308669 30228762 30198834 30028875 29498895 29028900 28938975 28979075 29159117 30279076 30919014 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W MSY TO 40 NNW MSY TO 20 E MCB TO 30 NE MCB TO 65 NW PIB TO 60 S GWO. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC093-095-103-105-117-271440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-031-035-039-041-045-047-059-061-065-067-073-075-077-091- 101-109-111-121-123-127-129-131-147-153-271440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH STONE WALTHALL WAYNE Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE LFT TO 30 SW MCB TO 25 NW MCB TO 60 NNE HEZ. ..LEITMAN..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-063-091-093-095-103-105-117-271340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-029-031-035-039-041-045-047-049-059-061-065-067-073-075- 077-085-091-101-109-111-113-121-123-127-129-131-147-149-153- 271340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LINCOLN MARION NEWTON PEARL RIVER PERRY PIKE RANKIN SCOTT Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms should occur today across parts of the southern Plains and the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across portions of Texas, while damaging winds will be the primary concern across the Southeast. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... The northern portion of a long-lived MCS has maintained its structure through the early morning hours across LA into western MS, with occasional strong to severe gusts observed. The airmass downstream of this small bowing complex is not overly unstable at the moment. But, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass across southern MS into AL/GA is expected to aid the development of weak to moderate instability by late morning/early afternoon. Current expectations are for this bow (or new updrafts along its outflow) to gradually intensify into the afternoon as it tracks east-northeastward in tandem with a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within larger cyclonic flow over the north-central/eastern CONUS. Deep-layer shear is forecast to remain adequate for continued organization with this cluster, and the threat for isolated to scattered damaging winds should increase by this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast states as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes. There may also be some chance for additional cells/clusters to develop ahead of the ongoing activity across the lower MS Valley this morning. Isolated hail and damaging winds may also occur with these thunderstorms if they form. ...Southern Plains... An extensive area of thunderstorms moved offshore from the TX Gulf Coast region earlier this morning and subsequently weakened. In its wake, a convectively reinforced front has settled well south into TX and parts of northern Mexico. Isolated cells which have developed this morning across parts of south-central TX may pose some risk for hail over the next few hours. Otherwise, more substantial convective development should occur over portions of west/south TX later this afternoon and evening, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west TX and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should still foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward across south-central and possibly deep south TX. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain of the central/southern Rockies this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts with this activity. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/27/2025 Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 336 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 336 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-025-029-033-037-041-047-063-065-077-091-093-095-103- 105-107-117-121-125-271240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA FRANKLIN IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON MADISON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-023-029-031-035-037-039-041-045-047-049-059-061- 063-065-067-073-075-077-085-091-101-109-111-113-121-123-127-129- 131-147-149-153-157-271240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GEORGE GREENE HANCOCK HARRISON Read more

MD 1006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...southeast LA and southern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 270954Z - 271130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible through the morning with an eastward-advancing line of storms. DISCUSSION...A line of storms across central/south-central LA will continue to shift east the next several hours. This activity is occurring within a modestly sheared environment and tracking along the MLCAPE gradient. Across southeast LA, dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F is supporting stronger, surface-based instability. This may foster a greater potential for severe gusts where surface-based storms are more likely. Nevertheless, strong gusts are possible northward into southern MS as the well-organized convection continues east. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31639241 32169042 32208982 31818843 31018833 30328894 29729005 29499099 29499188 29559229 29779264 31189270 31639241 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0336 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0336 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LA
Mesoscale Discussion 1005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...southern/central LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270834Z - 271000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong gusts may persist across parts of central and southern Louisiana the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...An eastward-progressing line of strong storms is tracking along/north of the marine front oriented west to east along the LA coast and within the MLCAPE gradient. Vertical shear is adequate to maintain storm organization, through does weaken with eastward extent. This activity has mostly remained sub-severe over the last 1-2 hours, though a 53 kt gust wast noted at KLCH. Storms are expected to gradually weaken with eastward extent, though isolated strong gusts remain possible. Some stronger rotation has recently been noted on the KLCH radar associated with a couple of mesovortices along the leading edge of the line across far southern LA where activity is likely closer to being surface-based. Strong gusts may be more likely across this area in the short term. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited and gradually diminish with time and eastward extent. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31639322 31549212 31079177 29849130 29289137 29279238 29549318 29939347 30689364 31209366 31639322 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... On Friday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass is forecast to be located from the Gulf Coast states northeastward into the Carolinas, where moderate instability should be in place by afternoon. Ahead of the trough, large-scale ascent should support scattered thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage expected from Georgia northeastward into the Carolinas. Model forecasts suggest that moderate deep-layer shear will exist ahead of the trough, which will contribute to a possibility for severe storms from mid afternoon into the early evening. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats. On Saturday and Sunday, a cold front is forecast to move southward across the Gulf of America, as northwesterly mid-level flow develops over the central U.S. A shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward from the central Plains on Saturday into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of a shortwave trough each afternoon and evening. An isolated severe threat will be possible. However, the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is not expected to be sufficient for a greater severe threat. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/ Day 8... A pronounced mid-level ridge is forecast to develop on Monday across the central U.S., with the ridge moving eastward into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. In the wake of the ridge, strong to severe thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of the northern Plains Monday afternoon and evening. On Tuesday, model forecasts suggest that scattered thunderstorm development could take place ahead of the trough in the upper Mississippi Valley, with additional storm development over the lower to mid Missouri Valley. Although a severe threat may develop, predictability for early next week is low at this time. Read more