Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...New Mexico... Isolated dry thunderstorms initiating along higher terrain across portions of central New Mexico/Rio Grande Valley are expected Wednesday afternoon where fuels remain dry. Slightly elevated west-southwest flow will usher in a drier, well mixed boundary layer which should erode convective potential from west to east into late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, forecast remains largely unchanged. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level moisture will increase from the east across portions of western and central New Mexico on Wednesday as a result of high pressure building in across Oklahoma and Texas. Thunderstorm coverage will be best across eastern New Mexico, but a few isolated high-based storms initiated along the higher terrain will be possible on the edge of the better moisture in western/central New Mexico. In this region, PW values will be < 0.50". An area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances was maintained near the Sandia Manzano Mountains west to the San Mateo Mountains in New Mexico with this outlook, as fuels in these region are near the 80th-90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...New Mexico... Isolated dry thunderstorms initiating along higher terrain across portions of central New Mexico/Rio Grande Valley are expected Wednesday afternoon where fuels remain dry. Slightly elevated west-southwest flow will usher in a drier, well mixed boundary layer which should erode convective potential from west to east into late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, forecast remains largely unchanged. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level moisture will increase from the east across portions of western and central New Mexico on Wednesday as a result of high pressure building in across Oklahoma and Texas. Thunderstorm coverage will be best across eastern New Mexico, but a few isolated high-based storms initiated along the higher terrain will be possible on the edge of the better moisture in western/central New Mexico. In this region, PW values will be < 0.50". An area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances was maintained near the Sandia Manzano Mountains west to the San Mateo Mountains in New Mexico with this outlook, as fuels in these region are near the 80th-90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...New Mexico... Isolated dry thunderstorms initiating along higher terrain across portions of central New Mexico/Rio Grande Valley are expected Wednesday afternoon where fuels remain dry. Slightly elevated west-southwest flow will usher in a drier, well mixed boundary layer which should erode convective potential from west to east into late afternoon and evening. Otherwise, forecast remains largely unchanged. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level moisture will increase from the east across portions of western and central New Mexico on Wednesday as a result of high pressure building in across Oklahoma and Texas. Thunderstorm coverage will be best across eastern New Mexico, but a few isolated high-based storms initiated along the higher terrain will be possible on the edge of the better moisture in western/central New Mexico. In this region, PW values will be < 0.50". An area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances was maintained near the Sandia Manzano Mountains west to the San Mateo Mountains in New Mexico with this outlook, as fuels in these region are near the 80th-90th percentile for dryness. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW CEW TO 15 SSE TOI TO 10 ENE AUO TO 25 NNE LGC TO 15 WSW ATL. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-031-039-045-061-067-069-081-087-109-113-272040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK COFFEE COVINGTON DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON PIKE RUSSELL GAC009-021-023-035-037-053-061-063-077-079-081-091-093-095-099- 113-141-145-151-153-159-167-169-171-175-177-193-197-199-207-215- 225-231-235-237-239-243-249-255-259-261-263-269-273-285-289-293- 303-307-315-319-272040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BUTTS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY CLAYTON COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE DOOLY DOUGHERTY EARLY FAYETTE HANCOCK HARRIS Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected on Thursday from the southern High Plains into the Southeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern will begin some eastward progression Thursday as the primary shortwave trough digs southeastward from the mid MO Valley toward the Mid-South by early Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move southeastward across AR/OK/TX in association with the digging midlevel trough, and this may provide a focus for strong-severe thunderstorm development. Storm coverage and timing are in question along the front, which suggests low severe probabilities are appropriate. Given the expected thermodynamic environment (moderate-large buoyancy) and somewhat favorable vertical shear near the front, higher probabilities may become warranted for some part of the 5%/MRGL area (especially across TX). Farther east, like previous days, there is some potential for a remnant MCV and an associated convective cluster to move across the Southeast (AL to GA) during the day. Predictability is modest at best, so will maintain 5% probabilities/MRGL in this update. ..Thompson.. 05/27/2025 Read more