Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Thursday-Friday... An upper-level short wave and cold front entering the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy and dry downslope winds to Columbia Basin for Day 3/Thursday with minimal precipitation. Fuels remain limited to dry/cured grasses with overall fuelscape still not too receptive for fire spread which precludes introduction of Critical probabilities at this time. A cut-off low expected to set up just west of Baja California will along with surface high pressure across the Southern Plains will support aid in moisture transport into southern New Mexico. High based thunderstorms along the northwestern fringe of the deeper moisture introduces at least an isolated dry thunderstorm threat to the eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains Day 4/Friday where ERC values at or above the 97th percentile. ...Day 5-6/Saturday-Sunday... Northerly transport of moisture from a nascent tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific supported by the Baja California cut-off low will usher in increasing boundary layer moisture into the Southwest over the weekend. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are likely across the Mogollon Rim Saturday and especially Sunday as a cut-off low shifts northeastward allowing PWAT values to exceed 1.00 inch with wetting rains expected. An upper-level trough shifting into Northwest could pose a fire weather threat to northern California/northwestern Nevada as a dry cold front moves through the region. Fuels will have several days of drying under an expansive heat wave encompassing much of the region. ...Day 7-8/Monday-Wednesday... A broader fire weather threat could return to the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday and to the Southwest Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday as a deepening upper-level trough and associated wind maxima shift over the western CONUS. However, broad precipitation across much of the West could mitigate fire weather concerns prior to expected breezy and dry conditions limiting confidence in introducing critical probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N MAI TO 45 SSW AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011. ..GRAMS..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-023-037-079-081-091-093-095-099-153-167-169-175-177- 193-225-235-249-261-273-289-303-315-319-272240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY CALHOUN CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE DOOLY DOUGHERTY EARLY HOUSTON JOHNSON JONES LAURENS LEE MACON PEACH PULASKI SCHLEY SUMTER TERRELL TWIGGS WASHINGTON WILCOX WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1009 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX...FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1009 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...portions of Southwest TX...far southeastern New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271924Z - 272130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage across Southwest TX and far southeastern NM with a risk primarily for large hail and damaging gusts. DISCUSSION...With strong diurnal heating ongoing, isolated convection has developed over the higher terrain of the Davis Mountains and and the western Rim of the Rio Grande Valley. Additional convection is likely to develop this afternoon as convective temperatures are breached and with continued low-level upslope flow in the wake of overnight outflow. Continued destabilization will result in moderate to large buoyancy with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and steep mid-level lapse rate. While westerly flow aloft will be overly strong, 30-40 kt of effective shear will be sufficient for supercells. Supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail given the favorable storm mode and steep mid-level lapse rates. While low-level shear is weak, a tornado or two also cannot be ruled out with the stronger supercells. With time, some clustering, and moderately deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support a risk for damaging outflow gusts. This appears especially likely with any stronger clusters that can develop and cross the Rio Grande later this afternoon/evening. It will likely take several hours for storms to mature and move off the higher terrain given relatively modest forcing for ascent. While the general severe risk should continue to increase, there remains some uncertainty on the timing of any potential watch. Conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 29100420 29880445 30930483 32160557 32750550 33030483 33120377 32380253 31550132 31020073 29800039 29420099 29430188 29650248 28860304 29100420 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0338 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0338 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0338 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0338 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1010 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 337... FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND CENTRAL/WESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1010 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Areas affected...southeast Alabama and central/western Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 337... Valid 271925Z - 272100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 337 continues. SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat will continue across central/western Georgia and southeast Alabama this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A line of storms organized with a bowing segment moving from eastern Alabama toward the Atlanta metro area within the last hour. This bowing segment is likely near the end of its threat as it moves into an increasingly stable airmass north of the wedge front. Along the wedge front, at least one TDS has occurred with other areas of rotation. A localized tornado threat along this boundary could persist through the afternoon given the increased shear along this zone. Expect storms currently across east/southeast Alabama to strengthen with a corridor of relatively greater damaging winds across central Georgia. The magnitude of winds from this will likely depend greatly on storm interactions and whether a bowing segment can develop. ..Bentley.. 05/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 33588490 33578391 33578304 33258264 32008337 30968458 30988596 31138638 31618651 33588490 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0337 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CEW TO 25 NNE DHN TO 20 NE CSG TO 25 SE ATL TO 35 E ATL. ..BENTLEY..05/27/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...MOB...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 337 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC067-069-272140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HENRY HOUSTON GAC009-021-023-035-037-053-061-079-081-091-093-095-099-141-153- 159-167-169-171-175-177-193-197-207-215-225-235-237-239-243-249- 259-261-263-269-273-289-293-303-307-315-319-272140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BLECKLEY BUTTS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY CRAWFORD CRISP DODGE DOOLY DOUGHERTY EARLY HANCOCK HOUSTON JASPER JOHNSON JONES LAMAR LAURENS LEE MACON MARION MONROE MUSCOGEE PEACH PULASKI PUTNAM QUITMAN RANDOLPH Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given to trim the Slight Risk across portions of eastern LA into southern MS with the passage of an earlier QLCS. However, surface observations show temperatures reaching 90 F in spots, indicating robust enough modification of the boundary layer to support some organized severe potential with an expected second round of storms this evening. Severe wind and hail is still expected to accompany the stronger storms that form to the lee of the central/southern Rockies, with potentially 2+ inch hail possible with storms closer to the Rio Grande. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given to trim the Slight Risk across portions of eastern LA into southern MS with the passage of an earlier QLCS. However, surface observations show temperatures reaching 90 F in spots, indicating robust enough modification of the boundary layer to support some organized severe potential with an expected second round of storms this evening. Severe wind and hail is still expected to accompany the stronger storms that form to the lee of the central/southern Rockies, with potentially 2+ inch hail possible with storms closer to the Rio Grande. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given to trim the Slight Risk across portions of eastern LA into southern MS with the passage of an earlier QLCS. However, surface observations show temperatures reaching 90 F in spots, indicating robust enough modification of the boundary layer to support some organized severe potential with an expected second round of storms this evening. Severe wind and hail is still expected to accompany the stronger storms that form to the lee of the central/southern Rockies, with potentially 2+ inch hail possible with storms closer to the Rio Grande. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given to trim the Slight Risk across portions of eastern LA into southern MS with the passage of an earlier QLCS. However, surface observations show temperatures reaching 90 F in spots, indicating robust enough modification of the boundary layer to support some organized severe potential with an expected second round of storms this evening. Severe wind and hail is still expected to accompany the stronger storms that form to the lee of the central/southern Rockies, with potentially 2+ inch hail possible with storms closer to the Rio Grande. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given to trim the Slight Risk across portions of eastern LA into southern MS with the passage of an earlier QLCS. However, surface observations show temperatures reaching 90 F in spots, indicating robust enough modification of the boundary layer to support some organized severe potential with an expected second round of storms this evening. Severe wind and hail is still expected to accompany the stronger storms that form to the lee of the central/southern Rockies, with potentially 2+ inch hail possible with storms closer to the Rio Grande. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the southern Plains to the Southeast. Large to very large hail and severe winds should be the main threats across western and southern portions of Texas, with damaging winds the primary concern across the Southeast. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was given to trim the Slight Risk across portions of eastern LA into southern MS with the passage of an earlier QLCS. However, surface observations show temperatures reaching 90 F in spots, indicating robust enough modification of the boundary layer to support some organized severe potential with an expected second round of storms this evening. Severe wind and hail is still expected to accompany the stronger storms that form to the lee of the central/southern Rockies, with potentially 2+ inch hail possible with storms closer to the Rio Grande. ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025/ ...Southeast States... A modestly organized quasi-linear cluster persists at midday across east-central/southwest Alabama, with a trailing MCV near the Mississippi and Alabama border. These storms will continue generally eastward and potentially intensify along the composite outflow through the afternoon into areas along/south of a front across Georgia, with at least isolated damaging wind potential. While not certain, some short-term guidance suggests that a degree of air mass recovery and abatement of outflow could allow for strong/localized severe storm redevelopment near the synoptic front later today farther west across southern Mississippi and possibly nearby Louisiana. ...Southern Plains including West/South Texas... In the wake of last night's extensive storms and prominent outflow now over the western Gulf, substantial convective development should focus later today over portions of west/south Texas, as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves from northwest/north-central Mexico into the Southwest and southern High Plains. Weak low-level upslope flow against the higher terrain in west Texas and northern Mexico may also aid thunderstorm development. Most guidance suggests that moderate to locally strong instability will exist by peak afternoon heating, with steep mid-level lapse rates once again overspreading the warm sector from higher terrain to the south/west. Mid-level westerly flow is expected to remain fairly modest, but veering and gradual strengthening with height through mid/upper levels should support around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Slow-moving supercells posing a threat for large to very large hail (2+ inches) should be the main threat with initial development. A transition to one or more bowing clusters with a greater severe wind threat appears possible through the evening and overnight hours as convection spreads generally southeastward toward and across south-central/Deep South Texas including the Rio Grande vicinity. ...Central/Southern High Plains... On the back side of an upper trough/low over the north-central states, isolated/high-based thunderstorms should initially form over the higher terrain this afternoon before spreading southeastward over the adjacent High Plains. While instability should tend to remain fairly weak, steepened low-level lapse rates this afternoon/evening and sufficient deep-layer shear to support modest updraft organization may support occasional hail and severe wind gusts. Read more