Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, occasional dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of New Mexico and eastern Montana. However, recent rainfall has largely tempered fuels in both areas, precluding widespread fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 06/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 PM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A generally zonal/low-amplitude mid-level flow pattern will be in place across the CONUS, with a well-defined impulse poised to eject into the Plains by afternoon. A moist low-level airmass, along with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, are expected across most areas east of the Rockies, which should mitigate wildfire spread potential. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may develop across portions of the Desert Southwest during the afternoon, though these conditions should be too brief or localized to warrant Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS AND OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado threat is anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms and possibly a couple of tornadoes are also possible across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys. ...Mid MS and TN Valleys... Late morning radar mosaic shows a decaying MCS over southern MO and AR. An MCV will move eastward this afternoon and diurnal destabilization of a very moist airmass near the MS/OH River confluence and Mid South will promote scattered storm development by early to mid afternoon. Enlarged hodographs imply a supercell tornado risk may develop from southeast MO eastward into KY/TN this afternoon and early evening. Farther south, widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast as convective inhibition erodes by early to mid afternoon to the east of the residual gust front. Forecast soundings show PW near 2 inches and 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE from AR into the northern half of MS/AL/GA. The southern fringe of stronger westerlies will promote multicell organization with the stronger storms and a hail/wind risk with some of these storms through the early evening. ...High Plains... Little change was made to the prior forecast. Two primary corridors for severe activity are apparent in model guidance---1) CO I-25 corridor and areas southeastward into portions of southwest KS/OK Panhandle and eventually the OK vicinity late tonight, and 2) in the vicinity of trailing outflow that will modify over portions of northwest/west TX and eastern NM. In eastern CO, moist upslope flow will contribute to upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints near the foothills beneath a belt of strong westerly mid to high-level flow. Steep lapse rates and elongated hodographs will favor supercells with a risk for a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and eventually a transition to a cluster becoming predominately a wind threat late. Farther south, intense supercells are expected to form in vicinity of this boundary during the late afternoon, posing another risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. Some signal in model guidance shows a cluster of storms persisting into the late evening as storms move east of the Caprock and into northwest TX before gradually diminishing late. ..Southern New England... Heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer is underway from the Hudson Valley eastward to the coast. Scattered storms are forecast to develop this afternoon with strong to severe multicells possible. A damaging wind/localize hail risk may accompany the stronger storms. For short-term details, reference MCD #1145. ..Smith/Thornton.. 06/06/2025 Read more